tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311457485786940232024-03-17T20:01:47.799-07:00What Paul Gregory is Writing AboutPaul R. Gregory's writings on Russia, the world economy, and other matters that he finds of interest.Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.comBlogger805125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-13398319053068437642022-03-16T11:12:00.004-07:002022-03-16T11:12:51.196-07:00Do reported Russian 'whistleblower' accounts indicate a crack in Putin's power?<p><br /></p><p>Alleged whistleblower Russian FSB officers declare that the war is lost, mobilization is not possible, Putin isolated (a chaotic decisionmaker), can't even count the dead, the nuclear button a bluff, how to win still if Zelenskiy signs a "soft" peace agreement. </p><p>Reason for the letters: to avoid the purges which have already begun.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/598397-do-reported-russian-whistleblower-accounts-indicate-a-crack-in-putins" target="_blank">go to The Hill</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-47651983204151339782022-02-26T06:26:00.004-08:002022-02-26T06:30:13.168-08:00Novaya gazeta has published photo of a fallen Russian soldier that will define this war for the Russian people<p> https://novayagazeta.ru/static/records/60f76957a8444d0a8a571c4fcd7505a8.webp</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgtJ52pPMKfmLQAhdbI2IW6wDwoY1c2xyaq45n3Z7UnholunZxCfCvOwPz2mVo7x_iS1NKG28HlaSBeHqYpJ-0AAV5mGx7vIoUfGhY9ZTxDP9jSMquc4vqFJIK_DnEdf8eg3YtNfpLOJ29PvsDk9AsLgvZh_QxRgQbf0-JS4nc-qKuLBrjSA3ngd1PN" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1192" data-original-width="1946" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgtJ52pPMKfmLQAhdbI2IW6wDwoY1c2xyaq45n3Z7UnholunZxCfCvOwPz2mVo7x_iS1NKG28HlaSBeHqYpJ-0AAV5mGx7vIoUfGhY9ZTxDP9jSMquc4vqFJIK_DnEdf8eg3YtNfpLOJ29PvsDk9AsLgvZh_QxRgQbf0-JS4nc-qKuLBrjSA3ngd1PN" width="320" /></a></div><br />https://novayagazeta.ru/static/records/60f76957a8444d0a8a571c4fcd7505a8.webp<p></p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-37569416320259984432022-02-21T05:54:00.001-08:002022-02-21T05:54:50.530-08:00How Russian Propaganda Spins a Dark, Fake Tale<p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Domine, serif; font-size: 16px;">Russian propagandists’ molding of Russian public opinion provides adversaries with advance notice of what the Kremlin has in mind. TASS’s emphasis on the Donbas reveals that the most likely plan is for the Kremlin to cook up a false flag operation, which gives the go-ahead for DNR and LNR troops to attack. As they are pushed back by superior Ukrainian forces, they will issue a call to their Russian comrades to come to their defense. The war is joined – or is the war simply resumed? Can it be limited, or will it get out of control? </span></p><p><a href="https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2022/02/20/how_russian_propaganda_spins_a_dark_fake_tale_817731.html" rel="nofollow">go to Realclearworld</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-58751367903167786342022-02-11T10:37:00.004-08:002022-02-11T10:37:29.920-08:00A retired Russian general's criticism may signal a larger problem for Putin<p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">Retired Russian Colonel-General </span><a class="rollover-people-link" href="https://thehill.com/person/leonid-ivashov" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline-block; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;">Leonid Ivashov</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">, the head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, has gone public with a statement that </span><a data-auth="NotApplicable" data-linkindex="0" href="https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;">calls for Russian President Vladimir Putin to resign</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"> over the confrontation involving Ukraine. To remove any doubt as to his message, Ivashov, 78, followed the public statement with an interview on a liberal Russian media outlet, Echo Moskvy, insisting that he was speaking in the name of the assembly of retired and reservist Russian officers which he heads. </span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/593880-a-retired-russian-generals-criticism-may-signal-a-larger-problem-for?rnd=1644600602" rel="nofollow">go to The Hill</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-92131304608932720162022-01-25T05:37:00.001-08:002022-01-25T05:37:16.683-08:00Negotiating with a liar (Putin's dog is a cat) <p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">In any peace negotiation, such as those in Minsk in 2014 and 2015, Russia insists it belongs on the side of the peacemakers and that by no means is Russia a combatant. In fact, according to this logic, Russian troops should be used to </span><a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/explainer-putin-ukraine-peacekeepers-donbas-poroshenko/28720342.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">maintain the peace</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">. In fact, Ukrainian analysts fear that Russia will cite “humanitarian concerns” to justify the permanent occupation of eastern Ukraine.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">And Blinken enters the negotiation bereft of the biggest weapon of all — the threatened use of U.S. or NATO troops. That option </span><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/12/08/biden-says-he-has-no-plans-send-u-s-troops-into-ukraine/6430752001/" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">is already off the table</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">. Blinken can either wait to be caught off-kilter by the next blow from Putin or to set up truly crushing sanctions to be applied in the case Russia violates a red line (which we appear not to have established). Among these sanctions would clearly be the end of Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project, personal sanctions on Putin’s inner circle, removal of Russia from the Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), or the sanctioning of Russia’s central bank — the ultimate weapon.</span></p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/591150-negotiating-with-a-liar-putins-dog-is-a-cat" target="_blank">go to The Hill</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-29612097676291639302022-01-25T05:31:00.003-08:002022-01-25T05:31:25.214-08:00Resource-rich Kazakhstan invites Putin to guard its henhouse<p> </p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">Russian troops serving as “peacekeepers” in Kazakhstan can open up a new relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan. Not only will Russian troops be a presence in Kazakhstan — as in Belarus, Russian cadres will find their way into Kazakhstan’s media, business, and public affairs.</span></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/588851-resource-rich-kazakhstan-invites-putin-to-guard-its-henhouse" target="_blank">go to The Hill</a></p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-16656925296847567912021-12-15T07:42:00.002-08:002021-12-15T07:42:24.590-08:00The pipe as the price of aggression. The fate of Nord Stream 2 is in doubt (Radio Liberty Interview with Paul Gregory)<div class="wsw" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1f2124; font-family: Skolar-Light-Cyrillic, Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 18px; word-break: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 27px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;"><a href="https://www.svoboda.org/a/truba-kak-tsena-agressii-sudjba-severnogo-potoka-2-pod-voprosom/31610101.html">for Russian text</a></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 27px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;">The future of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will be in question if Moscow does not make serious concessions. </strong></p><div class="fb-quote fb_iframe_widget" fb-iframe-plugin-query="app_id=322210431200953&container_width=1082&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.svoboda.org%2Fa%2Ftruba-kak-tsena-agressii-sudjba-severnogo-potoka-2-pod-voprosom%2F31610101.html&locale=en_US&sdk=joey" fb-xfbml-state="rendered" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-block; left: 137.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; top: -22px;"><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-block; height: 0px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-align: justify; vertical-align: top; width: 0px;"><iframe allow="encrypted-media" allowfullscreen="true" allowtransparency="true" data-gtm-yt-inspected-1_19="true" data-testid="fb:quote Facebook Social Plugin" frameborder="0" height="1000px" name="f31c97582def64" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/quote.php?app_id=322210431200953&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df1f773ee13d4b78%26domain%3Dwww.svoboda.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.svoboda.org%252Ff3e63c2f21834f8%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=1082&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.svoboda.org%2Fa%2Ftruba-kak-tsena-agressii-sudjba-severnogo-potoka-2-pod-voprosom%2F31610101.html&locale=en_US&sdk=joey" style="border-style: none; border-width: initial; box-sizing: inherit; height: 0px; position: absolute; visibility: visible; width: 0px;" title="fb: quote Facebook Social Plugin" width="1000px"></iframe></span></span></span></strong></div><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">At best, its commissioning will take place in June next year and only if Russia fulfills the preconditions that will prevent the Kremlin from using this pipeline as an instrument of political and economic pressure. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">Such a forecast in the Washington edition of The Hill is </span></span><a class="wsw__a" href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/585528-have-greens-and-european-bureaucrats-outsmarted-putin?rl=1" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(219, 222, 224); box-sizing: inherit; color: #ec6803; padding-bottom: 0.05em; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" target="_blank"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">made by</span></span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"> Professor Emeritus of the University of Houston, researcher at the German Institute for Economic Research, economist Paul Gregory.</span></span></strong><p></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 27px; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">According to Paul Gregory, the first statements by members of the new coalition government of the Federal Republic of Germany, where the majority were Social Democrats, sounded partly sensational. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">Germany's new foreign minister, </span></span><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;">Annalena Berbock</strong><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"> , a Green Party </span><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">spokeswoman</span></strong><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"> long known for her skepticism about Nord Stream 2, announced in a Sunday television interview that the new pipeline could not be operational as members of the government coalition believe it does not meet the requirements of European energy legislation. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">A few days ago, the new German chancellor </span></span><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;">Olaf Scholz</strong><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"> in response to a question whether Nord Stream 2 could be used as an instrument of pressure on the Kremlin to prevent a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, he said that such a move by Moscow would have consequences, which, according to Paul Gregory, means that the Kremlin will have to pay with Nord Stream 2 in the event of an attack on Ukraine.</span></p><div class="wsw__embed" style="box-sizing: inherit; clear: both; margin: 0px 0px 36px; padding: 0px;"><figure class="media-image js-media-expand js-media-expand--ready" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="img-wrap" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><div class="thumb" style="box-sizing: inherit; contain: content; font-size: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span class="ico ico-fullscreen ico--media-expand ico--rounded" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-pack: center; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; align-items: center; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2); background-image: none; background-position: -1248px 0px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 3808px 32px; border-radius: 50%; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: white; cursor: pointer; display: flex; font-family: icons; font-size: 16px; height: 2.4em; justify-content: center; left: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 1px; position: absolute; right: 10px; speak: none; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; top: 10px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 2.4em;"></span></div><figcaption style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span class="caption" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #5c646b; display: block; font-size: 15.75px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 9px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #1f2124; font-size: 18px; vertical-align: inherit;">If the new German government demands that Russia comply with all the requirements of European energy legislation, then the operating conditions of the new gas pipeline may be unacceptable for Gazprom and the Kremlin, </span><strong style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #1f2124; font-size: 18px;">Paul Gregory</strong><span style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #1f2124; font-size: 18px; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"> explained to </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">Radio Liberty:</span></span></span></figcaption></figure></div><div class="content-floated col-xs-12 col-sm-5 overlap-md" style="box-sizing: inherit; clear: both; float: left; margin: 0px 27px 0px -165.884px; min-height: 1px; padding: 0px 12px; position: relative; width: 232.232px;"><blockquote style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="c-blockquote c-blockquote--has-quote" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #ec6803; font-family: SkolarSans-BdCond_Cyr-Ltn, Arial, "Arial Unicode MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 22.5px; line-height: 29.25px; margin: 0px 0px 27px; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><div class="c-blockquote__content" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">If he is forced l plummet.</span></div></div></blockquote></div><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 27px; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">- The problem for Gazprom is that if it is forced to comply with these requirements, the competitiveness of Nord Stream 2 will plummet. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">Gazprom will not be able to act as a producer and supplier of gas. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">He will have to allocate a certain share of the capacity of his gas pipelines to transport competitors' products. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">All rates must be made public. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">From my point of view, these conditions are unacceptable for Gazprom. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">I assumed that Germany might allow, roughly speaking, a shell company to take over the transportation of gas in order to separate producer and supplier. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">The new German government, apparently, will not allow this. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">Among other things, the start-up of the gas pipeline must be approved by the European Commission, which initially opposed this project,</span></span></p><div class="wsw__embed" style="box-sizing: inherit; clear: both; margin: 0px 0px 36px; padding: 0px;"><figure class="media-image js-media-expand js-media-expand--ready" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="img-wrap" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><div class="thumb" style="box-sizing: inherit; contain: content; font-size: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span class="ico ico-fullscreen ico--media-expand ico--rounded" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-pack: center; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; align-items: center; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2); background-image: none; background-position: -1248px 0px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 3808px 32px; border-radius: 50%; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: white; cursor: pointer; display: flex; font-family: icons; font-size: 16px; height: 2.4em; justify-content: center; left: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 1px; position: absolute; right: 10px; speak: none; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; top: 10px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 2.4em;"></span></div><figcaption style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span class="caption" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #5c646b; display: block; font-size: 15.75px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 9px;"><span style="color: #1f2124; font-size: 18px;">Meeting European conditions will not only reduce the potential profitability of Nord Stream 2, but, more importantly for the Kremlin, prevent it from using the pipeline as a political tool, says Paul Gregory:</span></span></figcaption></figure></div><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 27px; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">- The use of Nord Stream 2 as an instrument of pressure in the event of meeting European requirements will be impossible, and in fact it was conceived in many respects in order to exclude Ukraine as a transit country for Russian natural gas. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">The capacity of Nord Stream 2 is close to the capacity of gas pipelines passing through the territory of Ukraine. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">Russia, of course, needs the money it can get by putting into operation a new gas pipeline, but I think the ability to use gas as an instrument of pressure is still more important for it.</span></span></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 27px; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">According to Paul Gregory, the current US sanctions and the possibility of new sanctions also continue to pose a serious problem for Nord Stream 2:</span></p><div class="content-floated col-xs-12 col-sm-5 overlap-md" style="box-sizing: inherit; clear: both; float: left; margin: 0px 27px 0px -165.884px; min-height: 1px; padding: 0px 12px; position: relative; width: 232.232px;"><blockquote style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="c-blockquote c-blockquote--has-quote" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #ec6803; font-family: SkolarSans-BdCond_Cyr-Ltn, Arial, "Arial Unicode MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 22.5px; line-height: 29.25px; margin: 0px 0px 27px; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><div class="c-blockquote__content" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">Any European company relat constant da</span></div></div></blockquote></div><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 27px; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">- The Senate is very decisive about the sanctions against the gas pipeline. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">And now there is a struggle between the Senate and the administration, which, as you know, has decided not to subject the pipeline operator to sanctions. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">But the existing sanctions are very tangible for Gazprom, because any European company related to Nord Stream 2 is in constant danger, it could become the target of US sanctions. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">This threat is taken seriously by any business.</span></span></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 27px; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">It is possible that in these new conditions, the future of Nord Stream 2 will be in question, says Paul Gregory:</span></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">- In my opinion, we can say that the fate of the gas pipeline is in question. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">So far, there is no answer to the question of whether it will be possible to start its operation in June 2022 or the process of obtaining final approval for its launch will drag on for several years. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">If I had been asked this question two weeks ago, I would have answered in the affirmative: yes, it will be launched in June. </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">But the picture was radically changed by the comments of representatives of the new government coalition in Germany, although it has been in power for only a few days, so it is too early to draw final conclusions, says Paul Gregory.</span></span></p></div><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1f2124; font-family: Skolar-Light-Cyrillic, Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="c-author c-author--hlight" style="background: rgb(233, 235, 236); box-sizing: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 18px;"><div class="media-block" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><a class="img-wrap img-wrap--xs img-wrap--float img-wrap--t-spac" href="https://www.svoboda.org/author/%D1%8E%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B9-%D0%B6%D0%B8%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BD/u-qi" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #ec6803; display: block; float: left; margin-bottom: 12px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 12px; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation; width: 87.875px;"><div class="thumb thumb1_1 rounded" style="background-color: #f7f7f8; background-image: url("../../img/image-placeholder.svg"); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat; border-radius: 50%; box-sizing: inherit; contain: content; font-size: 0px; height: 0px; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 87.875px; text-align: center;"><img alt="16x9 Image" class="avatar enhanced" data-src="https://gdb.rferl.org/2396F197-CF9C-48AB-BFFC-3AD321F38FA9_cx34_cy24_cw53_w66_r5.jpg" src="https://gdb.rferl.org/2396F197-CF9C-48AB-BFFC-3AD321F38FA9_cx34_cy24_cw53_w144_r5.jpg" style="background-color: #818a93; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; opacity: 1; padding: 0px; transition: opacity 0.5s ease-in-out 0s; width: 87.875px;" /></div></a><div class="c-author__content" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><h4 class="media-block__title media-block__title--author" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 22.5px; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.295; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 12px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.svoboda.org/author/%D1%8E%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B9-%D0%B6%D0%B8%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BD/u-qi" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(170, 176, 182); box-sizing: inherit; color: #32363a; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">Yuri Zhigalkin</span></a></h4><div class="c-author__email" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="mailto:ZhigalkinY@rferl.org" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(219, 222, 224); box-sizing: inherit; color: #ec6803; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">ZhigalkinY@rferl.org</span></a></div></div></div></div></li></ul><div class="wsw" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1f2124; font-family: Skolar-Light-Cyrillic, Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 18px; word-break: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 27px; padding: 0px;"><br /></p></div>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-36785061375542347732021-12-13T09:18:00.001-08:002021-12-13T09:18:19.580-08:00Have Greens and European bureaucrats outsmarted Putin?<p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">Now the bombshell: In her Sunday </span><a href="https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/id_91311066/baerbock-nord-stream-2-kann-so-nicht-genehmigt-werden.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">appearances</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"> on national TV, Baerbock declared that Nord Stream 2 could not become operational because, according to coalition agreements, the undersea pipeline was not consistent with European energy law. Hence, per Baerbock, Nord Stream 2 cannot be approved because it does not meet the decoupling, transparency, and capacity-sharing required by the EU’s Gas Directive. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">Who would have thought that the Social Democrats and Greens would be Ukraine’s savior?</span></p><p><br /></p><p> <a href="https://bit.ly/3m0yZgQ" target="_blank">go to The Hill</a></p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-70806875570757597072021-12-08T11:16:00.003-08:002021-12-08T17:07:56.047-08:00Biden No Match for Putin<p><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 0.5in;">The December 7 virtual
summit between President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin proved (as
expected) an uneven match. According to the short White House <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/07/readout-of-president-bidens-video-call-with-president-vladimir-putin-of-russia/">readout</a>,
Biden threatened Russia <span style="background: white; color: #0a2458;">with “strong
economic and other measures” in the event of military escalation and reiterated
his support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity</span>. </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">(There
was no mention of sanctions for Russia’s use of soft power to overthrow the
democratically elected government of Ukraine).</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">In contrast, the virtual summit format gave Putin free reign to mount an
uninterrupted 700-word full-throated </span><a href="https://www.interfax.ru/russia/807159" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">attack</a><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> on the West. Putin’s
“frank” indictment of Ukraine, NATO, and the US was meant for his domestic
audience and for those many in the West ambivalent towards Ukraine.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">At no time in the two-hour discussion did
Biden attempt to rebut any of Putin’s charges, no matter how outrageous.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">With the attention of the world focused on
the Russian build up on the Ukrainian border, Biden passed on the opportunity
to present a clear account of his side of the case. Perhaps Biden is unclear as
to what his “side” really is.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The two sides
disagreed even on why the virtual summit was called. Per Biden, the summit was
called to address the Russian threat to Ukraine. Putin claimed the main topics
were the “the internal Ukrainian crisis and the lack of progress in the
implementation of the Minsk agreements… which are the uncontested basis for a
peaceful settlement.” Putin proceeded to complain about “the destructive line
of Kiev, aimed at completely dismantling the Minsk agreements.” He also
condemned “Kiev's provocative actions against Donbass." So Ukraine is the
real threat not the 100,000 troops poised on Ukraine’s border. It would not be
hard for Biden to have rebutted this claim.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">So we learn from
Putin’s summit monologue that the true aggressors are NATO and the United
States. Ukraine is merely a puppet, but a dangerous one that has no claim to
legitimacy. Given the alleged imminent threat facing Russia, Putin contends
that the West should offer guarantees that would rule out NATO expansion to the
east. (I guess the Swedish and Dutch armies should stand down with no invasion
of Russia in the works.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Russian press
release briefly mentions Biden’s "allegedly" threatening "nature
of the movements of Russian troops near the Ukrainian borders and outlined
sanctions measures that the United States and its allies would be ready to
apply in case of further escalation of the situation.” Putin’s response is that
NATO is the threat in its “dangerous attempts to conquer Ukrainian territory and
building up its military potential at our borders.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Russian
Interfax release characterized the conversation as “frank and
businesslike" Both presidents agreed to instruct their representatives to
enter into substantive consultations on these sensitive issues. Good luck.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">After the summit’s
conclusion, Biden sent out spokespersons to clarify that he meant business. The
new sanctions could include the newly-completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The
Kremlin meanwhile took advantage of Biden’s ambiguity by <a href="file:///G:/www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-demands-security-guarantees-biden-curb-nato-expansion-2021-12-07/">claiming</a>
that both presidents agreed to negotiate the status of Ukraine and that <span style="color: #404040;">NATO's growing ties with Ukraine and the possibility of
the alliance deploying missiles targeted against Russia there represent a
"red line" that cannot be crossed.</span></span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The key takeaways
from the December 7 summit are: First, we must recognize that the two sides are
separated by a Grand-Canyon-like chasm. Second, the differences are too great
for a political solution, unless the West decides to capitulate. Third, even in
the case of capitulation, the Russian side cannot be counted on to live up to
its side of the agreement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(If it is
agreed that Ukraine must remain neutral, Russia will proceed to destroy all
politically neutral forces in Ukraine). Fourth, we cannot afford to have
summits that allow Putin free reign to tell his version of truth unrebutted. We
now see that Biden is clearly not up to the task. Let’s hope he gives up on the
idea of personal diplomacy.</span><o:p style="font-size: 12pt;"></o:p></span></p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-35678559869798769682021-12-06T18:05:00.000-08:002021-12-06T18:05:02.580-08:00Why should Putin invade, when Ukraine can be destroyed from within — with help from its 'friends'?<p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">When Biden </span><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/biden-putin-talk-next-week-tensions-grow-over-russian-troop-n1285361" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">zooms</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"> with Putin on Tuesday, he will see that Putin holds all the cards — and he only a pair of deuces, in the form of sending enough lethal military equipment to Ukraine to raise the cost to Putin of a military invasion.</span></p><p> <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/584458-why-should-putin-invade-when-ukraine-can-be-destroyed-from-within-with" target="_blank">go to The Hill</a></p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-20348290183866341022021-11-20T10:02:00.004-08:002021-11-20T10:04:03.159-08:00What to Make of the Intelligence Failure Over the Steele Dossier?<p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span face=""Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-size: 18px;">At the time (January 13, 2007), I expected the intelligence community to reach the same conclusion as I that the Steele Dossier was pure garbage. All that would be required was for them to observe general rules of intelligence collection. I was wrong then. To my alarm, the FBI was taking the fake dossier seriously. We are still waiting for some kind of disavowal of the dossier from our masters of intelligence.</span></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/582359-what-to-make-of-the-intelligence-failure-over-the-steele-dossier" target="_blank">go to The Hill</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-8451184204249999982021-11-01T16:33:00.002-07:002021-11-01T16:33:35.003-07:00Where are Biden and Merkel's sanctions against Putin's gas weapon?<p> <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/579442-where-are-biden-and-merkels-sanctions-against-putins-gas-weapon" target="_blank">go to The Hill</a></p><p><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">In July, President <span class="rollover-people" data-behavior="rolloverpeople" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><a class="rollover-people-link" data-nid="188332" href="https://thehill.com/people/joe-biden" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline-block; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;">Joe Biden</a></span> and German Chancellor <a class="rollover-people-link" href="https://thehill.com/person/angela-merkel" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline-block; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;">Angela Merkel</a> <a href="https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/8/23/germany-vows-sanctions-if-russia-uses-nord-stream-2-pipeline-as-a-weapon" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">agreed</a> to reimpose sanctions if <span class="rollover-people" data-behavior="rolloverpeople" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><a class="rollover-people-link" data-nid="440511" href="https://thehill.com/people/vladimir-putin" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline-block; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;">Vladimir Putin</a></span> used gas as a “geopolitical weapon.” This <a href="https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2021-07-22/deal-between-germany-and-us-nord-stream-2" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">agreement</a> constituted a concession in return for Biden’s waiver of sanctions on Nord Stream 2, which allowed its completion. Merkel had already <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/germanys-merkel-calls-ukraine-gas-transit-agreement-2021-08-22/" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">vouched</a> for continued gas deliveries through Ukraine — a questionable pledge from a politician leaving office.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">Despite these Biden-Merkel assurances, Putin’s Kremlin has engaged in undisguised blackmail to render Europe hostage to Russia’s gas monopoly, Gazprom. Putin’s blackmail aims to force the speedy certification of Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline by delivering less gas to Europe. Putin’s ultimate goal: Destroy the European Union’s competitive and transparent energy market.</p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-19710723669025194312021-09-08T19:19:00.000-07:002021-09-08T19:19:18.101-07:00Ukraine Finds Cold Comfort in Biden's White House<p> <a href="https://www.hoover.org/research/ukraine-finds-cold-comfort-white-house" target="_blank">go to Defining Ideas</a></p><p><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: proxima-nova-condensed, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 19px;">In the United States’ perennial quest for allies who share goals and contribute their fair share toward security, Ukraine is an exceptional bargain. This was perhaps the most important message that President Volodymir Zelenskiy carried with him to Washington last week in his face-to-face meeting with President Biden. Time will tell whether his message sinks in.</p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: proxima-nova-condensed, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 19px;">The United States has not had the best of experiences with choosing allies over the years. In Asia, Africa, and Latin America, Washington often has thrown in its lot with unsavory partners. In recent weeks, as Afghan forces collapsed despite the billions of dollars spent to train and equip them, it again became clear that lavish military aid buys neither friendly, stable governments nor territorial integrity. And within NATO, partner nations seem to want the American security blanket without always paying their dues or developing serious military forces of their own.</p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: proxima-nova-condensed, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 19px;">Zelenskiy, therefore, should have earned a warm reception from the Biden administration at the long-awaited Washington summit. Instead, he was received as a supplicant from a country characterized as paralyzed by corruption. The forty-three-year-old former TV actor, in his third year of office and first Washington visit, had come to America to counter Ukraine’s more-than-half-empty image in Washington.</p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-50439185098395711572021-07-26T17:40:00.002-07:002021-07-26T18:46:17.290-07:00A Green Light for Russian Hegemony<p> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: proxima-nova-condensed, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">As Nord Stream 2 deliveries replace those through Ukraine, Europe too loses its main lever against Russian military action. If Russian or Russian surrogate forces make a move, say, to create a land bridge connecting the separatist eastern Donbas region with Crimea, will Germany and Europe turn off Nord Stream 2 and plunge into recession? Or will European leaders beat their chests, issue diplomatic protests, recall ambassadors, and ratchet up sanctions while Putin pockets his latest territorial prizes, his flow of revenue secure?</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proxima-nova-condensed, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><a href="https://www.hoover.org/research/green-light-russian-hegemony" target="_blank">go to Defining Ideas</a></span></p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-3065988754096728712021-06-17T08:57:00.004-07:002021-06-17T08:57:58.918-07:00Biden gives Putin the Nord Stream prize and gets nothing in return<p> </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">Former Putin advisor <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/unian-putins-ex-advisor-suggests-a-direction-of-a-possible-russian-invasion-of-ukraine.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Andrei Illarionov points out</a> the enormous political leverage that Nord Stream 2 will bestow on Russia’s Gazprom: Come winter, there can be service interruptions that threaten customers that oppose Russian policies; others may be favored in terms of price and delivery if they bend to Putin’s rule. Russia can continue to squeeze Ukrainian territory, while its European gas customers keep quiet.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">It is notable that the Biden decision comes at the right political moment for Nord Stream 2. With a national election scheduled for September, Merkel retiring and scandals threatening the traditional German ruling coalition, the resurgent German Green Party seems scheduled for significant gains. Perhaps there will even be a Green chancellor, or a Green foreign or economics minister. In such a case, the official policy of Germany would turn against Nord Stream 2.</p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/554689-biden-gives-putin-the-nord-stream-prize-and-gets-nothing-in-return">go to The Hill</a><br /></p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-2607017296598500822021-06-17T08:48:00.001-07:002021-06-17T08:48:22.115-07:00Is Biden Trying To Sell Nord Stream 2 Approval As A Green Energy Initiative?<p> <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/431145748578694023/260701729659850082">go to forbes.com</a></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">Western powers often characterize Russia as a rogue state with nuclear weapons and a military disproportionate to its frail economy. Russia is the largest supplier of raw materials to the world economy. Its president, Vladimir Putin, does not let a trouble-making opportunity go to waste.</span></p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">The new Biden administration has the responsibility of dealing with Russia that has forcibly changed Europe’s boundaries (Crimea), initiated a “separatist” war in East Ukraine, quasi-annexed parts of Georgia, shot down a passenger plane (MH17), intervened in Syria on behalf of Bashar Assad, interfered with foreign elections, assassinated regime opponents at home and abroad, kidnapped sailors in international waters and denied freedom of navigation on the Black and Azov Seas.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">But Ukraine remains at the heart of Washington’s Putin Problem.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">After Ukraine unseated its pro-Russian president in 2014 to pursue a policy of integration into the West, Putin has sought to unravel a democratic Ukraine through his proxy war in “separatist” Donetsk (DNR) and Luhansk (LNR) “peoples’ republics,” both governed by Moscow viceroys. The Kremlin’s propaganda campaign claims that Ukraine never has and never will be a nation, that it is run by crooks, neo-Nazis, and extremists who victimize Russian speakers.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">In a word, the Kremlin hopes to convince the West that Ukraine is not worthy of support. Putin is now directing this message at President Joe Biden and his inner circle, perhaps with some success.</p><div class="article_paragraph_7" style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;"></div><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">The West has had almost a decade to learn how to deal with Russia. Its preferred instrument has been sanctions to punish Russia for specific criminal acts, such as the shooting down of MH17 in July of 2014 or the poisoning and imprisonment on sham charges of Putin opponent Aleksei Navalny. The Trump administration, joined by the European Union, also levied stiff sanctions on companies associated with the new undersea pipeline (Nord Stream 2) from Russia to Germany. Nord Stream 2 would replace the Ukrainian pipeline network that has transported Russian gas to Europe through Central Europe for decades.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">The West imposes sanctions on Russia as an incentive to improve behavior. If Russia were to, for example, admit guilt for shooting down MH17 and compensate relatives or release Navalny, the associated sanctions would be lifted.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">So far, this strategy has not worked.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">The Western world had every reason to expect that the new Biden administration would impose tough new sanctions on Nord Stream 2. After all, Biden <a aria-label="publicly declared" class="color-link" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nordstream-usa-biden/white-house-says-biden-believes-nord-stream-2-bad-deal-for-europe-idUSKBN2AG29A" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nordstream-usa-biden/white-house-says-biden-believes-nord-stream-2-bad-deal-for-europe-idUSKBN2AG29A" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #003891; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nordstream-usa-biden/white-house-says-biden-believes-nord-stream-2-bad-deal-for-europe-idUSKBN2AG29A">publicly declared</a> Nord Stream 2 “a bad deal for Europe” after <a aria-label="declaring" class="color-link" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/18/world/europe/russia-biden-putin-killer.html" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/18/world/europe/russia-biden-putin-killer.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #003891; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/18/world/europe/russia-biden-putin-killer.html">declaring</a> that Putin is a “killer.” Moreover, Biden let it be known that <a aria-label="new sanctions" class="color-link" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/us/politics/biden-putin-navalny-russia.html" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/us/politics/biden-putin-navalny-russia.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #003891; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/us/politics/biden-putin-navalny-russia.html">new sanctions</a> for the Navalny affair were in the works.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">To nearly everyone’s surprise the Biden administration announced on May 19 that it was <a aria-label="waiving Nord Stream 2 sanctions" class="color-link" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waive-sanctions-firm-ceo-behind-russias-nord-stream-2-pipeline-source-2021-05-19/" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waive-sanctions-firm-ceo-behind-russias-nord-stream-2-pipeline-source-2021-05-19/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #003891; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waive-sanctions-firm-ceo-behind-russias-nord-stream-2-pipeline-source-2021-05-19/">waiving Nord Stream 2 sanctions</a>, despite the fact that a strong bipartisan Senate majority <a aria-label="supports" class="color-link" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/chairman-menendez-statement-on-state-departments-nord-stream-2-report-" href="https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/chairman-menendez-statement-on-state-departments-nord-stream-2-report-" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #003891; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/chairman-menendez-statement-on-state-departments-nord-stream-2-report-">supports</a> new sanctions.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">Biden’s stated rationale for clearing the way for the completion of Nord Stream 2: Trump, as President, damaged Washington-Berlin relations by criticizing Germany harshly for not meeting its commitments to NATO. Hence, the US should <a aria-label="repair relations" class="color-link" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-2-sanctions-would-be-counter-productive-european-ties-biden-2021-05-26/" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-2-sanctions-would-be-counter-productive-european-ties-biden-2021-05-26/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #003891; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-2-sanctions-would-be-counter-productive-european-ties-biden-2021-05-26/">repair relations</a> with their most important ally by supporting Angela Merkel through the Nord Stream 2 deal before she leaves office in September. Already gas production in European Union is declining, with Germany alone expected to increase consumption of natural gas by 20 Bcm by 2034 to 110 Bcm. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline under the Baltic would effectively bring more supply from reserves in Russia to Germany as well as to other countries in the EU. German officials project the pipeline o lower gas prices by 13% and allow Germany to decommission all nuclear power plants and coal plants by 2038 – as called for by Germany’s Energiewende.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">By contrast, much of the EU, despite the opportunity to reap economic and environmental benefits of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline fear it as an instrument of Russian domination. As well, following Merkel’s departure in September, elections may usher in <a aria-label="a change" class="color-link" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://nationalinterest.org/feature/lifting-nord-stream-2-sanctions-creates-new-crisis-186647" href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/lifting-nord-stream-2-sanctions-creates-new-crisis-186647" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #003891; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/lifting-nord-stream-2-sanctions-creates-new-crisis-186647">a change</a> in Germany’s position on Nord Stream 2.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">Without a doubt the big winner from Biden’s decision is Moscow. The big loser is Ukraine and the Kyiv-Washington relationship.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation regrets the <a aria-label="loss of western credibility" class="color-link" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://jamestown.org/program/four-setbacks-to-western-credibility-in-ukraine-part-one/" href="https://jamestown.org/program/four-setbacks-to-western-credibility-in-ukraine-part-one/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #003891; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="https://jamestown.org/program/four-setbacks-to-western-credibility-in-ukraine-part-one/">loss of western credibility</a> in Ukraine, and a perceived “downgrading of Ukraine on the scale of Western policy priorities” taken in deference to Russia, in particular the exemption of Nord Stream 2.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">Ukraine understands that timing was not a coincidence. The waiver announcement was made on the day of the Blinken-Lavrov meeting to prepare for the Biden-Putin summit scheduled for June 19 in Geneva. Nord Steam 2, Ukraine believes, is Biden’s gift to Putin to entice him to the Geneva summit.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">Ukraine reacted in a burst of diplomatic fury to what it perceived as the Biden betrayal. Washington did not even extend the courtesy of advance notice of the upcoming Nord Stream 2 waiver. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy characterized the lifting of sanctions on Nord Stream 2 as a “defeat of the United States, a personal defeat of President Biden in terms of standing up to Russia […] a major Russian geopolitical victory, and a redistribution of power and influence [in Europe].” Zelenskiy went on to declare to be “personally worried about possible tradeoffs” at the Biden-Putin summit adversely affecting Ukraine.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">The former Ukrainian foreign minister, Pavlo Klimkin, declaring that the US decision came as “a blow to the gut” to Ukraine and that “any signs of a crisis of confidence between Ukraine and the United States would be the worst thing that could happen at this time.”</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">The backlash to President Biden’s Nord Stream 2 decision required the White House Press Secretary, Jen Psaki, to declare that Washington "doesn't regard the meeting with the Russian President as a <a aria-label="reward" class="color-link" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-meeting-with-russian-foreign-minister-lavrov/" href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-meeting-with-russian-foreign-minister-lavrov/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #003891; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-meeting-with-russian-foreign-minister-lavrov/">reward</a>; we regard it as a vital part of defending America's interests." That the White House had to deny on record that Nord Stream 2 was a “bribe” to lure Putin to a summit is telling commentary.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">Moreover, two fellows of the influential Council on Foreign Relations published in <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Hill</em> a “Green” apologia for Biden’s actions on May 20. The <a aria-label="story," class="color-link" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/554286-how-to-turn-nord-stream-2-into-a-win-for-ukraine" href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/554286-how-to-turn-nord-stream-2-into-a-win-for-ukraine" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #003891; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/554286-how-to-turn-nord-stream-2-into-a-win-for-ukraine">story,</a> entitled “How to Turn Nord Stream 2 Into a Win for Ukraine,” contends that Ukraine’s loss of the gas transit business is a blessing in disguise. It frees the Ukrainian budget from reliance on carbon energy, and it allows Ukraine to focus on green energy. After all, in the long run, the world will be carbon free, so Ukraine can be at the forefront of the green energy revolution. As to Europe, the authors contend that Nord Stream 2 just replaces the capacity of the Ukrainian pipeline system. Overall gas volumes will be unaffected, so the gas price will be unaffected. Not to worry, Nord Stream 2 will have to obey German competition rules.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">However, control of gas pipelines bestows considerable power over price and quantity. Given the substantial clout of the Russian lobby and its cyber warfare capacity to take out rivals, the Gazprom supplied Nord Stream 2 will not be a paragon of the competitive model.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">The rules of the game have been that the US and EU were on Ukraine’s side and would do what is possible for Ukraine. Germany’s interests appear to supersede Ukraine’s, and incidentally favor Russia at the expense of Ukraine. But the Biden administration’s actions with respect to Nord Stream 2 and its rush into a one-on-one summit with Putin raise the question of whether this basic understanding has been broken – namely that the Biden administration does not regard Ukraine’s entry into the Western world as vital to the West’s interests.</p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">Russia’s state gas company, Gazprom, makes no bones that it is an instrument of Russian foreign policy and power, not a commercial undertaking. What goes unmentioned is that, given the importance of gas revenue to Putin’s Russia. Russia cannot invade Ukraine so long as a considerable portion of its gas pipeline traverses through Ukraine. With Nord Stream 2 in full operation, Putin can invade at his convenience and a natural gas dependent Europe will do nothing except keep on buying Russian gas. If this is the cost of a greener energy mix, is the West willing to pay it?</p><article class="pay-wall-content content_60c0ef986f47670006e9e3fe current-page" id="article-container-0" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "Work Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><main class="main-content--body" id="article-stream-0" style="box-sizing: border-box; padding-top: 0px;"><div class="article-wrapper" style="-webkit-box-pack: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; justify-content: center; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 1800px; position: relative; width: 1503.84px;"><div class="body-container" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 750px; padding: 0px 30.0625px; position: relative; width: 703.844px;"><div class="article-body-container show-iframes" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 1.2rem; overflow-anchor: none; position: relative;"><div class="article-body fs-article fs-responsive-text current-article" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; line-height: 30px; max-width: 42em;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;"><br /></p></div></div></div></div></main></article>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-70298188713575997732021-03-20T17:37:00.001-07:002021-03-20T17:37:19.485-07:00Getting the Facts straight on Operation Warp Speed<p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">Judged by its own benchmarks — regulatory approval and vaccinations by the end of 2020 and the accelerated delivery of 300 million doses — Operation Warp Speed is a rare private-public partnership that has met its performance benchmarks. The heavy lifting of ushering vaccines through clinical-trials, scaling-up mass production, and initiating the complicated process of distribution to the states were well on their way as the Biden administration took office. It should be emphasized that OWS was launched to almost universal skepticism and even scorn. At the time of OWS’s launch in Spring 2020, a strong consensus prevailed among media, public-health experts, consultants, and betting markets that regulatory approval by the end of 2020 and the accelerated delivery of 300 million doses were unrealistic goals.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/544175-getting-the-facts-right-on-operation-warp-speed#bottom-story-socials" target="_blank">go to the Hill</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-35186924009012648092021-03-03T09:51:00.000-08:002021-03-03T09:51:10.556-08:00Do Biden's 'tough new sanctions' give Putin Nord Stream 2?<p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">Western <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/02/972792693/white-house-slaps-tough-new-sanctions-on-russia-over-navalny-poisoning" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">media</a> is greeting the Biden administration’s Russian sanctions as “signaling a tougher stance on Russia than under former President Donald Trump.” <span class="rollover-people" data-behavior="rolloverpeople" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><a class="rollover-people-link" data-nid="440511" href="https://thehill.com/people/vladimir-putin" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline-block; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;">Vladimir Putin</a></span> likely thinks otherwise.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">It looks as if the Biden administration has blinked on Putin’s key foreign policy objective — the completion and operation of the <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/russias-enemies-fear-biden-wont-014507387.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=ma" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Nord Stream 2</a> pipeline, delivering Russian gas to Europe. The sanctioning of a few Kremlin officials is petty change compared to the decade-long profitable effects of Russian pipeline politics.</p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/541345-do-bidens-tough-new-sanctions-give-putin-nord-stream-2">go to The Hill</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-2054628413505401202021-02-27T08:57:00.003-08:002021-02-27T08:57:32.723-08:00"Woke" Amnesty International revokes the prisoner of conscience status of Russia's most "woke" political figure, Aleksei Navalny<p><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">Consider the irony of the unwoke Kremlin holding the feet of Western institutions to the woke fire. As a result, Amnesty International fell victim to the Kremlin's smear campaign — as did, perhaps, Navalny's chances for a Nobel Peace Prize. Putin could hardly ask for anything more.</p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/540815-wests-wokeness-helped-russia-to-redefine-a-prisoner-of-conscience" target="_blank">go to The Hill</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-85458571789044240642021-02-05T10:38:00.004-08:002021-02-05T10:41:57.476-08:00Navalny proves too hot for 'poisoner Putin'<p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">Navalny offers a “Beautiful Russia of the Future” that can be gained, starting in September, by voting against any parliamentary candidate who sides with the Kremlin. The Kremlin has decided it can no longer ignore "the blogger" and "the Berlin Patient." These are significant victories.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">The outcome is far from certain. It seems time for the Nobel committee to take note.</p><p> <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/537499-navalny-proves-too-hot-for-poisoner-putin" target="_blank">go to TheHill</a></p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com65tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-25753065011869913122021-01-05T17:47:00.000-08:002021-01-05T17:47:25.470-08:00The Kremlin, FSB, and the 'Berlin patient's' underpants<p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">The Navalny poisoning should remove any last doubts about the Kremlin’s routine use of </span><a href="https://echo.msk.ru/news/2761780-echo.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">political murder</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"> as an instrument of state policy. Navalny was scheduled to follow Boris Nemtsov, Anna Politkovskaya, Alexander Litvinenko, and many others to their early graves. Prior to Navalny, Putin and his Kremlin allies could always blame sinister false flag operations, lone mavericks, or ethnic gangs for these murders. With an exposed assassination squad, aided by military weapons labs and transportation coordinated by transport police, it would strain credulity to argue that the Navalny poisoning was not an operation of the Kremlin itself.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding-left: 30px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">A conversation in Moscow:</em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding-left: 30px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Where do you work?</em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding-left: 30px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">In the FSB.</em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding-left: 30px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">What department?</em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding-left: 30px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Department of Underwear.</em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding-left: 30px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding-left: 30px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">They say that every morning before Putin puts on fresh underpants, he gives them to his guards to wear first.</em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding-left: 30px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding-left: 30px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Switching out jars of urine, washing other people's panties. The FSB still has many “wet” cases ahead. The whole world should tremble and fear!</em></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/532730-the-kremlin-fsb-and-the-berlin-patients-underpants" target="_blank">go to The Hill</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-37852619963167337792020-11-11T08:23:00.000-08:002020-11-11T08:23:00.820-08:00A new Putin worse than the old Putin?<p><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">In a word, the transfer of “the Putin system” to a successor should be a piece of cake. Immunity is another matter. Putin, as an “ex-KGB” surrounded by ex-KGB, seems bound to trust his immunity to security officials. Thus, Russia may end up with a “new Putin” from the already powerful security apparatus. The outlines of any transition will be defined by the Yeltsin precedent. We can anticipate an internecine battle royale among various interest groups of Putin’s inner circle; who comes out on top is anyone’s guess.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">F.A. Hayek, in his 1944 “Road to Serfdom,” wrote that in political systems like Putin’s Russia, the worst rise to the top — namely, those most ruthless in using power. Thus, we might have to get used to a new Russian president who is worse than Putin.</p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/525456-a-new-putin-worse-than-the-old-putin" target="_blank">go to The Hill</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com24tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-67202085660254142912020-10-19T18:39:00.002-07:002020-10-19T18:39:38.246-07:00Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict adds to Putin's headaches, West's worries<p><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">The last thing <span class="rollover-people" data-behavior="rolloverpeople" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><a class="rollover-people-link" data-nid="440511" href="https://thehill.com/people/vladimir-putin" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline-block; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;">Vladimir Putin</a></span> needed is another hotspot in Russia’s “<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/22/magazine/on-language-the-near-abroad.html&source=gmail&ust=1602986583781000&usg=AFQjCNFCTBDymXCMCyswfH_iQvyKI6iEew" href="https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/22/magazine/on-language-the-near-abroad.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">near abroad</a>” — Russia’s term for the 14 republics that once were part of the old Soviet Union, along with the Russian Republic. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">In 1994, Putin boasted of an ambitious imperial restoration project; his plans included a “<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-puts-novorossiya-project-put-on-hold-2015-5&source=gmail&ust=1602986583781000&usg=AFQjCNFIwcI7lKsX0-Dxs1GCaPxoRS9bDg" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-puts-novorossiya-project-put-on-hold-2015-5" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">New Russia</a>” encompassing parts of Ukraine and Belarus, along with a <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/eurasian-economic-union-five-great-expectations-and-hard-times&source=gmail&ust=1602986583781000&usg=AFQjCNE5grh0ck5ghsc41SA_lhC4m1Uxhw" href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/eurasian-economic-union-five-great-expectations-and-hard-times" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(42, 83, 193); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; display: inline; outline: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Eurasian Union</a> (including, among others, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan) that eventually would grow to rival the European Union.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">That was then. Now, Putin sees his vision fading as popular unrest and armed conflicts take hold in the former-USSR territories he had scheduled for restoration.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/521543-armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-adds-to-putins-headaches-wests-worries" target="_blank">go to The Hill</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-47730883964048501192020-09-24T20:31:00.000-07:002020-09-24T20:31:02.309-07:00Navalny Poisoning Just A Bump In The Road For Nord Stream 2<p><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">The smart money would be on NS2’s eventual completion and Russia’s continued domination of the European gas market. Navalny has survived, NS2’s defenders and lobbyists are in full swing. The Trump administration may have run out of sanctions options. The European Union has bigger problems to deal with. With the </span><a aria-label="feeble demand" class="color-link" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/45/961659/gazprom-ifrs-2q2020-management-report-en.pdf" href="https://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/45/961659/gazprom-ifrs-2q2020-management-report-en.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #003891; cursor: pointer; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="https://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/45/961659/gazprom-ifrs-2q2020-management-report-en.pdf">feeble demand</a><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">for gas associated with COVID-19, Germany and Europe can take their time as Russia pulls out all stops in its defense of NS2.</span></p><p style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem;">NS2 will be completed. The only question is the duration of the delay.</p><p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2020/09/24/navalny-poisoning-just-a-bump-in-the-road-for-nord-stream-2/#4b9d653b2888" target="_blank">go to Forbes.com</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-431145748578694023.post-23797956470860977552020-09-07T08:01:00.000-07:002020-09-07T08:01:14.283-07:00Don't expect Europe to hold Putin accountable in Navalny poisoning<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">The Kremlin has already made clear there will be no “transparent” investigation of the attempted murder of Aleksei Navalny. How can there be when the chief suspect is the head of state?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">The West is not able to deal with a rogue state located in its heartland. Russian forces still occupy Crimea, Eastern Ukraine and Georgian territory; Russia still denies being involved in shooting down Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 over Eastern Ukraine in 2014. Russia ranks among the most dangerous countries for journalists, and any number of political assassinations remain unresolved.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">When Putin is caught red handed, he keeps on playing for time and throws preposterous theories against the wall to see if any stick. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "Graphik Web", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">It seems that only the Russian people – somehow, some day – can find a solution.</p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/515338-dont-expect-europe-to-hold-putin-accountable-in-navalny-poisoning" target="_blank">go to The Hill</a> </p>Paul Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11438975758018323872noreply@blogger.com4