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Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Yes, Putin Fired Luzhkov

Some observers have written that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was responsible for the September 28 firing of Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov. They interpret it as a bold move on Medvedev’s part to assert himself and lay the foundations for his presidential campaign in 2012.

I still stick to my original interpretation: Luzhkov was fired to remove the most viable alternative to Putin’s return to presidential power. Luzhkov was fired by Medvedev for the simple reason that only the Russian President has the authority to remove regional leaders. Putin assumed this ant-democratic authority during his presidency, and it is now being exercised by his proxy, Medvedev.

There is one simple reason why Medvedev will not be the President of Russia in 2012. He is not a member of the KGB club that runs Russia today. Putin installed former KGB officers in the key positions of government and industry to create a “KGB state.” In Russia, all changes at the top mean a reshuffling of positions of wealth and power. If Medvedev were to become president, a “purge” would occur. Medvedev would put his people in place and Putin’s KGB clan would be the losers. They will not allow this to happen.

The only interesting question is the timing of the Luzhkov firing. He was able to remain in this position so long because he was popular among Muscovites. He might be corrupt but he got things done. The summer forest fires around Moscow dented his image as an efficient administrator. His popularity rating had sunk to thirty six percent by summer’s end. The timing was right for his removal and Putin moved swiftly.

Although Luzhkov vowed to fight on, his actions after his firing are telling. He resigned from United Russia, a party he helped found, and he is complaining loudly about the sorry state of Russian politics, without really doing anything. These actions underscore the complete monopoly of power of the Kremlin.

2 comments:

  1. > There is one simple reason why Medvedev will
    > not be the President of Russia <...>. He
    > is not a member of the KGB club that runs
    > Russia today.

    These exactly words could have been said before the previous presidential elections (to be precise, before the Medvedev's candidacy has been announced), and they would have looked quite convincing.

    In fact, it is likely that lots of observers did say something like that. As we know now they were wrong.

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  2. Paul, I agree with the first half of your argument. Putin made the decision. But I disagree with the second. Putin could stomach no top official discussing a Putin-Medvedev split. That is only for journalists. But I don't buy the KGB part. Medvedev is a Putin guy since early St Petersburg days. Most of the key cronies are from that group: Kudrin, Zubkov. See my presentation on Putin's Protection Racket, at the CRIFES website, www.crifes.psu.edu

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