French voters went to the polls
today to winnow a ten-candidate presidential field down to the
“right-of-center” incumbent (Nicolas Sarkozy) and his socialist challenger (Francois
Hollande). The two will face each other in a
runoff election on May 6. A Sarkozy loss would be the first of an incumbent
French president in thirty years. It
would threaten the German-French sponsored European Union rescue package. It is
no surprise that Germany’s
Angela Merkel openly supported Sarkozy’s candidacy.
The French election previews the U.S. November
election contest between incumbent Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney in
the following four ways:
1). Both Obama and Hollande offer
almost identical leftist platforms (details on this below).
2) The bland challengers (Hollande
and Romney) ignite electoral passions less than their more colorful opponents
(playboy Sarkozy with his celebrity wife and Obama, the first black president).
3) The sorry state of the economy
gives both challengers a hefty leg-up.
4) The French and American elections
are foreshadowed by electoral disasters for the incumbent party in off-year races
in 2010 and 2011. In both, the incumbent party lost long-held majorities in one house
of Congress or parliament.
Whereas the outcome of the U.S. election
is currently too close to call, opinion polls show the French socialist
candidate poised to win decisively in the run off. As the odds tip increasingly
in favor of a Hollande victory, the risk premium on French bonds will rise. It
is no secret that the investment community views a Hollande victory a threat to France’s solvency.
A victory of France’s
socialist candidate Hollande will not translate into electoral success for his
American soul mate, Obama, for three reasons:
Dr. Gregory's latest book can be purchased at Amazon.com.
Le Pen's 3rd place show indicates a runoff advantage for Sarkozy.
ReplyDeleteWe do not know whether Le Pen's supporters will boycott Sarkozy. We imagine that Hollande will get the far left vote.
ReplyDeleteSome may not vote. Sarkozy needs only more than half. He is now focusing on immigrants, border, language,....more than before.
ReplyDeletep.s., Le Pen's momentum is not a good news for the euro zone's future.