Friday, October 31, 2014

A Bad Gas Deal For Ukraine As Europe Looks After Its Own Interests

The BBC headline tells it all: Russia-Ukraine gas deal secures EU winter supply (via Ukraine). European officials also confirmed the message of the headline. Commission President Manuel Barroso triumphantly declared: “There is now no reason for people in Europe to stay cold this winter,” and European Union energy chief, Guenther Oettinger, announced he was confident that Ukraine would be able to afford to pay for the gas it needed (Says who?). Where are Ukraine’s expressions of gratitude and relief? They are lacking for good reason.

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Sunday, October 26, 2014

Ukraine Crosses Putin By Electing A Pro-Western, Non-Radical Parliament That Reflects The New Ukraine

Poroshenko got what he needed. His own bloc and that of Prime Minister Yatsenyuk received 44 percent of the votes. A surprisingly strong showing of the “Self Help” party headed by the pro-Western mayor of Lviv gives him a coalition of 57 percent of the votes – a governing majority in which all members share common policies towards the West and Russia.

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Thursday, October 23, 2014

Stress Tests Conclude That Europe Can Call Putin's Energy Bluff And Win

The European Commission study suggests that Europe is in a position to call Mr. Putin’s bluff. Europe can ignore his threats to cut off countries, like Slovakia, Norway or Poland, which supply Ukraine with gas. Market forces will transfer gas to those most dependent on Russian gas under the market solution.

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Tuesday, October 21, 2014

The Letter That Obama Should Write To Putin On Ukraine--But Won't

President Obama’s failed reset and his weak response to Putin’s War Against Ukraine stuck him with a reputation of indecisiveness and naïveté, reinforced by cumulating foreign policy failures. Obama, unlike Angela Merkel, members of Congress of both parties, and, lately, Hillary Clinton, still appears to be late to understand Putin’s global threat and his goal to destroy NATO. With one intense bill-of-particulars against Putin, Obama coukd outline his plan to stop Putin’s expansionism before it is too late. Such a move could save the last two years of Obama’s presidency. Here is what Obama should say.

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Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Putin’s Reaction To Sanctions Is Destroying The Economy And China Won’t Help

Things are not going well for Vladimir Putin. The price of oil and the ruble continue to fall. Top Russian officials admit that the economy is in big trouble, despite Putin’s denials. Likely presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, has declared that Putin must be contained. Putin’s counter sanctions are making things worse. The most ominous sign, however, is that Putin is weakening the foundations on which his power is based. He is cutting off foreign investment by bailing out his friends, and he is breaking the social compact on which his KGB-Mafia state is founded.

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Saturday, October 11, 2014

A Republican Senate Can Help Send U.S. Weapons to Ukraine

Congress, unlike the president, has understood and been shamed by the lament in Proroshenko’s speech to Congress: “One cannot win a war with blankets – or peace.”  Maybe our so-called dysfunctional Congress can actually do something. Poroshenko understood that Congress was Ukraine’s only chance. He thanked the U.S. Congress for its support of Ukraine, notably leaving out the president.


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Monday, October 6, 2014

Putin's and Xi Jinping's fear of Maidan -- fear of the "rule of the corner."

Hong Kong will answer the question: Can a dictatorship operate according to a strict rule of law? These examples show the answer is no. Under a dictatorship, the dictator is the law. Hence there can be no rule of law. It is as simple as that.


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Thursday, October 2, 2014

As Russia Intimidates Europe, Obama Fiddles On Energy Policy

Vladimir Putin watches the evening news from his Sochi villa: “In an election move, Barack Obama approved the Keystone pipeline and opened offshore public land to drilling. Mexico’s Pemex announced a 50 percent increase in production. Five LNG tankers docked at European ports today, including Riga and Klaipeda. Poland and Lithuania announced significant discoveries of shale gas. In a surprise move, Germany renounced its Energiewende and reopened three nuclear power plants. Russia’s Gazprom competed today with five other suppliers at the annual auction of natural gas contracts in Rotterdam.”

Vladimir Putin awakes in a cold sweat. His gymnast girl friend assures him: Vova: It was just a bad dream. Vova  retorts in a foul mood: No, it

is not a dream. They can crush me if they get their act together.

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