Imagine John McCain, having eked out a narrow victory in 2008, running for reelection against Illinois Senator Barack Obama under today’s economic and foreign policy circumstances. The following would be a sample triumphant press report – New York Times, Washington Post, LA Times, what have you — dated Friday September15.
“President John McCain’s reelection bid is tottering on the verge of
collapse. The raising of the black flag over the Cairo Embassy, the
killing of the U.S. ambassador in Libya, and the outburst of violent
protests throughout the Mid East appear to be the coup de grace to
McCain’s faltering campaign. Yesterday, reporters pelted the visibly
dispirited McCain on the campaign trail with pointed questions about the
Middle East: ‘Did you really say Egypt is no longer an ally? Did a
major UK newspaper not present evidence that we had credible reports of
security breaches at our Libya compound and you did nothing about it?
You have not held a press conference for months. When do you intend to
stand before the press and answer our questions?
go to forbes.com
Showing posts with label Arab spring. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arab spring. Show all posts
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Friday, June 15, 2012
So Much for Egypt's Arab Spring
The Arab Spring has ended in Egypt as I expected. The Military has abolished the parliament and has introduced new rules close to martial law. It seems to make no sense to continue with the presidential election runoff.
What has happened was totally predictable. The Egyptian military (and associated establishment) control some 40 percent of the economy. They are rich and will not give up what they have without a battle to the death. A legitimate, independent government would have taken all this away.
No surprises here.
The U.S, State Department must decide what to do. We might be tempted to go back to the status quo alliance with an unsavory partner. Who knows?
What has happened was totally predictable. The Egyptian military (and associated establishment) control some 40 percent of the economy. They are rich and will not give up what they have without a battle to the death. A legitimate, independent government would have taken all this away.
No surprises here.
The U.S, State Department must decide what to do. We might be tempted to go back to the status quo alliance with an unsavory partner. Who knows?
Monday, October 31, 2011
Colonel Gaddafi's Lesson for Dictators
Joseph Stalin wrote the playbook for dictators. His rules remain as current today as when he developed them in the 1930s. Clearly, Colonel Gaddafi could not follow them in full. If so, he’d be alive today, but some matters were outside of his control. Bashar Assad must be feverishly reviewing Gaddafi’s last months to make sure he does not end up with a bullet to the head himself.
As political scientist Beuno de la Mesquita has shown, dictatorial regimes have long lives. The overthrow of a dictator is actually a rare event. It is even rarer for dictators unconstrained by morality or convention.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
My Arab April Spring Scorecard
Losses:
Syria’s Assad remains in power despite (thanks to?) brutal suppression. The modest sanctions imposed on his regime will make no difference. Despite Assad’s close alliance with Iran, the political assassinations in Lebanon, and support of Hezbollah, the strange argument still prevails that we would be worse off without the “potential reformer” Assad.
Bad Mistakes:
The Egyptian military’s decision to try Mubarak and the international court indictment of Kaddafi send the message that dictators should hold on to power until their last breath. There is no such thing as a graceful exit. Yemen’s President Saleh got the message and is now refusing to resign. Kaddafi and sons have received the message as well.
Unlikely Wins:
Egypt’s military understands that real democracy can cost it its control of Egypt’s economy and wealth. It will not allow liberal democratic forces time to form real political parties. Egypt’s military will remain in control perhaps in cahoots with the Muslim Brotherhood. They will increasingly suppress true democratic reformers in subtle but effective ways.
Possible Wins:
Even uncoordinated and weak support from NATO is preventing a defeat of rebel forces by Kaddafi loyalists. As hostilities drag on, a missile is likely to get Kaddafi. Until that happens, there will be a protracted civil war in Libya. If Kaddafi is not killed, NATO countries will lose the will to fight and Kaddafi survives.
Syria’s Assad remains in power despite (thanks to?) brutal suppression. The modest sanctions imposed on his regime will make no difference. Despite Assad’s close alliance with Iran, the political assassinations in Lebanon, and support of Hezbollah, the strange argument still prevails that we would be worse off without the “potential reformer” Assad.
Bad Mistakes:
The Egyptian military’s decision to try Mubarak and the international court indictment of Kaddafi send the message that dictators should hold on to power until their last breath. There is no such thing as a graceful exit. Yemen’s President Saleh got the message and is now refusing to resign. Kaddafi and sons have received the message as well.
Unlikely Wins:
Egypt’s military understands that real democracy can cost it its control of Egypt’s economy and wealth. It will not allow liberal democratic forces time to form real political parties. Egypt’s military will remain in control perhaps in cahoots with the Muslim Brotherhood. They will increasingly suppress true democratic reformers in subtle but effective ways.
Possible Wins:
Even uncoordinated and weak support from NATO is preventing a defeat of rebel forces by Kaddafi loyalists. As hostilities drag on, a missile is likely to get Kaddafi. Until that happens, there will be a protracted civil war in Libya. If Kaddafi is not killed, NATO countries will lose the will to fight and Kaddafi survives.
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