The public does not understand that there is no “settled
science.” Science is always on the move. Previously accepted notions are
challenged. What were consensuses are replaced by new “paradigms,” enjoying
their time in the sun and waiting for their turn to be challenged.
Most scientific disputes are fought behind closed
doors, “peer review” refereeing for scholarly journals, and in opaque scientific
conferences.
Occasionally, especially when the stakes are high,
scientific battles are fought in the open. In Germany, two dueling scientists
are battling over the effect of covid on children, especially whether children
can be carriers of the coronavirus.
As Germany opens its schools and its Kitas (Kindergartens),
its politicians very much need “science” to tell them whether Kindergarteners can infect their parents and grandparents. Science’s
answer is: Yes, I know the answer, and those who think otherwise are wrong.
The chief virologist of the famed Charite Hospital in
Berlin, Christian Drosten, is the closest equivalent in Germany to the US’s Dr.
Fauci. For weeks he has featured on the regular Coronavirus update on the
nightly news. As he answers questions from worried viewers, he gives the impression
of authority and assurance.
In the past few days, his disagreement
with Alexander Kekule, virologist and Director of the of Medical Microbiology
of the University Clinic of Halle, has burst the boundaries of scientific
discourse. Their duel is featured in nightly news, TV reports, and newspaper
interviews.
What is the disagreement about? In a preliminary (preprint)
publication not intended for media publication, Drosten reported that his study
found that children can transmit coronavirus as readily as adults. Dr. Kekula
begs to differ. Dr. Drosten’s study, he claims, is deeply flawed.
The Drosten-Kekule debate has turned into twitter exchanges
and personal insults, but the outcome of the debate could not be more important.
Kekule attacks Drosten for faulty statistical analysis and demands that the
paper be withdrawn. Drosten counters that Kekula’s weak scholarly credentials should
destroy his credibility.
Families with young children anxious to return to
their schools are verunsichert (unsettled). All they know is that two
credentialed specialists in virology are coming to opposite conclusions.
In an attempt to come to the rescue, the Berlin
Tagesspiegel consulted a series of scientist-virologists in the hope of
deciding who is right and who is wrong. What the Tagesspiegel got was a lot of
hemming-and-hawing. Yes, there may be some problems with the Drosten study, but
it should be understood as a “part of
the scientific process;” e.g., there is no right and no wrong.
I
do not see the German debate as politically motivated. It is instead an insider’s
glimpse into the world of science and
scholarship that has spilled over into social discourse.
In
an interview with network TV, Germany’s Parliament President Wolfgang Schauble addressed
the problem of the interactions between elected officials, responsible for
policy, and scientists. Schuable admitted what American politicians do not want
to say – science is unsettled, scientists disagree among themselves but policy
must be made, decisions must be taken. All politicians can do is do their best
with inadequate scientific information and disagreement.
In
Germany, there appears to be room for scientists to disagree and for policy
makers to be informed of their disagreements and do the best they can. This may
no longer be possible in the US where questions, such as school openings, business
shutdowns, protective masks, and tests of hydroxychloroquine become so politicized that few are willing to
hear both sides of scientific arguments. Actions are agenda driven, and the agenda
need not be informed by science anyway.
