Former Putin advisor Andrei Illarionov points out the enormous political leverage that Nord Stream 2 will bestow on Russia’s Gazprom: Come winter, there can be service interruptions that threaten customers that oppose Russian policies; others may be favored in terms of price and delivery if they bend to Putin’s rule. Russia can continue to squeeze Ukrainian territory, while its European gas customers keep quiet.
It is notable that the Biden decision comes at the right political moment for Nord Stream 2. With a national election scheduled for September, Merkel retiring and scandals threatening the traditional German ruling coalition, the resurgent German Green Party seems scheduled for significant gains. Perhaps there will even be a Green chancellor, or a Green foreign or economics minister. In such a case, the official policy of Germany would turn against Nord Stream 2.
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The decision to proceed with Nord Stream 2 without guarantees from Russia raises concerns about political leverage and potential consequences, especially in light of shifting dynamics within German politics.
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