Wednesday, December 8, 2021

Biden No Match for Putin

 

The December 7 virtual summit between President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin proved (as expected) an uneven match. According to the short White House readout, Biden threatened Russia with “strong economic and other measures” in the event of military escalation and reiterated his support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. (There was no mention of sanctions for Russia’s use of soft power to overthrow the democratically elected government of Ukraine).  In contrast, the virtual summit format gave Putin free reign to mount an uninterrupted 700-word full-throated attack on the West. Putin’s “frank” indictment of Ukraine, NATO, and the US was meant for his domestic audience and for those many in the West ambivalent towards Ukraine.  At no time in the two-hour discussion did Biden attempt to rebut any of Putin’s charges, no matter how outrageous.  With the attention of the world focused on the Russian build up on the Ukrainian border, Biden passed on the opportunity to present a clear account of his side of the case. Perhaps Biden is unclear as to what his “side” really is.

The two sides disagreed even on why the virtual summit was called. Per Biden, the summit was called to address the Russian threat to Ukraine. Putin claimed the main topics were the “the internal Ukrainian crisis and the lack of progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements… which are the uncontested basis for a peaceful settlement.” Putin proceeded to complain about “the destructive line of Kiev, aimed at completely dismantling the Minsk agreements.” He also condemned “Kiev's provocative actions against Donbass." So Ukraine is the real threat not the 100,000 troops poised on Ukraine’s border. It would not be hard for Biden to have rebutted this claim.

So we learn from Putin’s summit monologue that the true aggressors are NATO and the United States. Ukraine is merely a puppet, but a dangerous one that has no claim to legitimacy. Given the alleged imminent threat facing Russia, Putin contends that the West should offer guarantees that would rule out NATO expansion to the east. (I guess the Swedish and Dutch armies should stand down with no invasion of Russia in the works.)

The Russian press release briefly mentions Biden’s "allegedly" threatening "nature of the movements of Russian troops near the Ukrainian borders and outlined sanctions measures that the United States and its allies would be ready to apply in case of further escalation of the situation.” Putin’s response is that NATO is the threat in its “dangerous attempts to conquer Ukrainian territory and building up its military potential at our borders.”

The Russian Interfax release characterized the conversation as “frank and businesslike" Both presidents agreed to instruct their representatives to enter into substantive consultations on these sensitive issues. Good luck.

After the summit’s conclusion, Biden sent out spokespersons to clarify that he meant business. The new sanctions could include the newly-completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The Kremlin meanwhile took advantage of Biden’s ambiguity by claiming that both presidents agreed to negotiate the status of Ukraine and that NATO's growing ties with Ukraine and the possibility of the alliance deploying missiles targeted against Russia there represent a "red line" that cannot be crossed.

The key takeaways from the December 7 summit are: First, we must recognize that the two sides are separated by a Grand-Canyon-like chasm. Second, the differences are too great for a political solution, unless the West decides to capitulate. Third, even in the case of capitulation, the Russian side cannot be counted on to live up to its side of the agreement.  (If it is agreed that Ukraine must remain neutral, Russia will proceed to destroy all politically neutral forces in Ukraine). Fourth, we cannot afford to have summits that allow Putin free reign to tell his version of truth unrebutted. We now see that Biden is clearly not up to the task. Let’s hope he gives up on the idea of personal diplomacy.

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