Much Too Early to Say Putin has Won: Understanding the Big Lie

Today’s gloom-and-doom Times piece concludes that the Russian protest movement “collided with the cold reality of Mr. Putin’s convincing victory” in the March 4 presidential election. Protesters lack a leader and a positive message. Sunday’s demonstrations gave them an opportunity “to cry out together, one more time, for political freedom.” No further demonstrations are scheduled. All is lost. Putin has won.

The White House has signed on to this “Putin has won” version.  After five day’s of hesitation, President Obama called Putin, as the White House communiqué reported, to congratulate him on his March 4 victory. Other Western nations sent more muted messages, but not Obama.

Not so fast. Let’s get this straight. Putin did not win a “convincing electoral victory.” Real elections require an opposition, not the sorry rogues’ gallery Putin allowed to oppose him. His Central Electoral Commission disqualified everyone else. As one protester complained: “We can’t go to the courts. We cannot go to the prosecutor.” The streets remain the only option.

As long as we believe the big lie that March 4 was a real presidential election, Putin can triumphantly declare (with tears in his eyes?) democracy alive and well.  True: Voters went to the polls. Putin might have won even without the ballot stuffing, carrousel voting, and intimidation. But Putin’s “Party of Scoundrels and Thieves” barely scraped by against the shopworn communists and nationalists in the December 4 parliamentary elections. He could take no chances on March 4.

go to Forbes.com

Chinese Stock Alarm? Sino-Forest May Be the Best of the Bunch

Sino-Forest is a Wholly-Owned Foreign Enterprise that harvests, processes, and sells wood from leased or owned tree plantations in various Chinese provinces. Its international management hails from Hong Kong, China, and Canada. Sino-Forest trades on the Toronto Exchange, is audited by Ernst & Young, and its glossy annual reports boast of master agreements, huge markets, a plantation strategy, and possible a billion dollar loan from Chinese banks.

If you want to invest in China, Sino-Forest appears (or appeared) to be among your best bets.

Sino-Forest’s compelling story generated a market capitalization of six billion dollars and a share price that rose from $10 to $23 while stocks were collapsing worldwide.

That was then. A critical report sent the share price tumbling eighty percent, trading has been suspended for possible violations of security laws, and the Canadian Mounties are investigating for fraud. The company’s outside directors hired PriceWaterhouseCoopers to investigate.

The investment community finally got a clear picture of how business is done in China, did not like what it saw, and dumped the stock. It’s as simple as that.

go to Forbes.com 

Only in Putin’s Russia: Prosecute a Dead Man!

On November 16, 2009, lawyer Sergei Magnitsky died in a Russian prison. He was jailed for alleged tax evasion, but his mains sins were representing Hermitage Capital’s case against the Russian state and for blowing the whistle against crooked Russian officials. In prison, he was denied medical attention despite repeated requests and died in custody.

Magnitsky case became an international incident. The U.S. State Department has issued a list of Russian officials involved in the case whom are to be denied visas. Russian justice authorities cleared the prosecutor who handled the Magnitsky case and even awarded him a medal. Russian authorities are preparing a list of U.S. officials to be denied visas to Russia.

In a possible Kremlin rift, President Medvedev named a human rights commission to look into the case. They concluded that Magnitsky’s arrest contravened the European Human Rights Convention, the case against him was fabricated and pursued by the same Interior Ministry officials he accused of a $230 million theft from the Russian Treasury, and he was beaten immediately before his death in custody. The Russian interior ministry rejected these findings.

On August 5, the Russian Interior Ministry announced they plan to prosecute  Magnitsky for alleged tax evasion, although  he has been dead for twenty months. They justified this bizarre action as a humanitarian move to give Magnitsky’s family the satisfaction of a chance to clear his name. This  claim was rejected by Magnitsky’s mother, who said: "To put a man on trial after he was killed, when he can no longer defend himself, is an evil and base act. It goes against all human morals, and law."

Blago's Motor Mouth Got Him Caught. Others Know What Not to Say

The inevitable has occurred. Former Illinois Governor, Rod Blagojevich, has been convicted for his role in trying to personally benefit from selecting (selling) Barack Obama’s Senate seat.  He was found guilty on seventeen counts. The bad guys have been caught. We can rest more easily. Justice has been served.

Blago seems to have learned one lesson. As he said on the courthouse steps after the verdict: I should learn ot keep my mouth shut.

The majority of long-serving members of Congress (or their spouses or offspring) are multi-millionaires. Most entered office with relatively modest wealth. Their incumbency wealth is unlikely the result of business or investment acumen.

Poor Blago! His crime was that he was an incompetent thief. He had maxxed out his credit cards, he had little to his name, he couldn’t keep his mouth shut, and he used cuss words (just like Nixon!). Those with whom he “negotiated” for the vacant seat were more clever. They knew the right words to use, how to say indirectly what poor Blago said openly. They emerged from this mess unscathed.

Congress hands out tax and spending favors right and left. If you stay on the good side of the administration, regulators will not harass you.  If you do not give enough, someone may sic the NLRB, EPA, or SEC on you. The cumulated effect of  these inducements, favors, and threats are of a greater scale than the sale of one measly Senate seat. Moreover, all these actions can be packaged as protecting the nations’ health, preventing mining accidents, keeping the public safe, or warding off the next bubble. Everything is perfectly legal and above board.