Follow Paul Gregory by Email

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Some Encouraging News from 1918


go to Defining Ideas


In a 2007 National Academy of Sciences study of the Spanish Flu, researchers used  data on the timing  of 19 classes of NPIs in 17 U.S. cities during the 1918 pandemic to test whether early implementation of multiple NPI interventions was associated with reduced disease transmission. Indeed, the researchers found that “cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic had peak death rates 50% lower than those that did not and had less-steep epidemic curves.” In other words, the timely introduction of NPI measures reduced peak mortality in the surveyed cities.

The finding of reduced peak mortality seems to confirm that the timely introduction of multiple interventions does indeed buy time to prepare for the peak of the pandemic and in this sense plays a positive role. The finding does not rule out that NPIs simply transfer illness and death to later dates and hence does not lower cumulative mortality.

On this point, researchers find that “cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic also showed a trend toward lower cumulative excess mortality, but the difference was smaller (20%) and less statistically significant than that for peak mortality.”

The lower cumulative mortality rate is the most encouraging finding from the 1918 flu experience, although this finding is less robust than the effect on peak mortality.

16 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My husband and I have been married for about 7 yrs now. We were happily married with two kids, a boy and a girl. 3 months ago, I started to notice some strange behavior from him and a few weeks later I found out that my husband is seeing someone. He started coming home late from work, he hardly care about me or the kids anymore, Sometimes he goes out and doesn't even come back home for about 2-3 days. I did all I could to rectify this problem but all to no avail. I became very worried and needed help. As I was browsing through the Internet one day, I came across a website that suggested that Dr Great can help solve marital problems, restore broken relationships and so on. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he did a spell for me. Two days later, my husband came to me and apologized for the wrongs he did and promise never to do it again. Ever since then, everything has returned back to normal. I and my family are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr Great . If you need a spell caster that can cast a spell that truly works, I suggest you contact him. He will not disappoint you. This is his E-mail: 

      infinitylovespell@gmail.com or infinitylovespell@yahoo.com

      WhatsApp +2348118829899

      Blog http://infinitylovespell1.blogspot.com






      My husband and I have been married for about 7 yrs now. We were happily married with two kids, a boy and a girl. 3 months ago, I started to notice some strange behavior from him and a few weeks later I found out that my husband is seeing someone. He started coming home late from work, he hardly care about me or the kids anymore, Sometimes he goes out and doesn't even come back home for about 2-3 days. I did all I could to rectify this problem but all to no avail. I became very worried and needed help. As I was browsing through the Internet one day, I came across a website that suggested that Dr Great can help solve marital problems, restore broken relationships and so on. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he did a spell for me. Two days later, my husband came to me and apologized for the wrongs he did and promise never to do it again. Ever since then, everything has returned back to normal. I and my family are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr Great . If you need a spell caster that can cast a spell that truly works, I suggest you contact him. He will not disappoint you. This is his E-mail: 

      infinitylovespell@gmail.com or infinitylovespell@yahoo.com

      WhatsApp +2348118829899

      Blog http://infinitylovespell1.blogspot.com









      My husband and I have been married for about 7 yrs now. We were happily married with two kids, a boy and a girl. 3 months ago, I started to notice some strange behavior from him and a few weeks later I found out that my husband is seeing someone. He started coming home late from work, he hardly care about me or the kids anymore, Sometimes he goes out and doesn't even come back home for about 2-3 days. I did all I could to rectify this problem but all to no avail. I became very worried and needed help. As I was browsing through the Internet one day, I came across a website that suggested that Dr Great can help solve marital problems, restore broken relationships and so on. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he did a spell for me. Two days later, my husband came to me and apologized for the wrongs he did and promise never to do it again. Ever since then, everything has returned back to normal. I and my family are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr Great . If you need a spell caster that can cast a spell that truly works, I suggest you contact him. He will not disappoint you. This is his E-mail: 

      infinitylovespell@gmail.com or infinitylovespell@yahoo.com

      WhatsApp +2348118829899

      Blog http://infinitylovespell1.blogspot.com

      Delete
    2. I want to thank Dr Emu a very powerful spell caster who help me to bring my husband back to me, few month ago i have a serious problem with my husband, to the extend that he left the house, and he started dating another woman and he stayed with the woman, i tried all i can to bring him back, but all my effort was useless until the day my friend came to my house and i told her every thing that had happened between me and my husband, then she told me of a powerful spell caster who help her when she was in the same problem I then contact Dr Emu and told him every thing and he told me not to worry my self again that my husband will come back to me after he has cast a spell on him, i thought it was a joke, after he had finish casting the spell, he told me that he had just finish casting the spell, to my greatest surprise within 48 hours, my husband really came back begging me to forgive him, if you need his help you can contact him with via email: Emutemple@gmail.com or add him up on his whatsapp +2347012841542 is willing to help any body that need his help.
      Website: http://emutemple.website2.me/

      Delete
  2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Strong And Powerful Love Spell To Win Your Ex Back.. I have decided that i am going to spend the whole day on the internet just to make sure that a lot of people are able to read this my testimony about Dr.happy who is a powerful spell caster from Africa, After been abandon by my lover i was so lonely that very day that i decided to go through the net for some relationships tips, I never knew that this was the road map that will secure the return of my lover. After reading a lot of tips on how to restore my relationship in a more better way i discovered that Dr.happy has a lot of recommendation than other spell casters, So with this i had my mind made up that Dr.happy was the right person for the job, And i contacted Dr.happy through his details which i saw on the internet and i was so happy that i chose to work with Dr.happy because his work was 100% perfect and the spell brought my lover back to me with fast relief you can also contact him for help now email.. happylovespell2@gmail.com
    Website...happylovespell2.webnode.com/
    Whatsapp/cal +2348133873774

    ReplyDelete
  4. Strong And Powerful Love Spell To Win Your Ex Back.. I have decided that i am going to spend the whole day on the internet just to make sure that a lot of people are able to read this my testimony about Dr.happy who is a powerful spell caster from Africa, After been abandon by my lover i was so lonely that very day that i decided to go through the net for some relationships tips, I never knew that this was the road map that will secure the return of my lover. After reading a lot of tips on how to restore my relationship in a more better way i discovered that Dr.happy has a lot of recommendation than other spell casters, So with this i had my mind made up that Dr.happy was the right person for the job, And i contacted Dr.happy through his details which i saw on the internet and i was so happy that i chose to work with Dr.happy because his work was 100% perfect and the spell brought my lover back to me with fast relief you can also contact him for help now email.. happylovespell2@gmail.com
    Website...happylovespell2.webnode.com/
    Whatsapp/cal +2348133873774

    ReplyDelete
  5. My husband and I have been married for about 7 yrs now. We were happily married with two kids, a boy and a girl. 3 months ago, I started to notice some strange behavior from him and a few weeks later I found out that my husband is seeing someone. He started coming home late from work, he hardly care about me or the kids anymore, Sometimes he goes out and doesn't even come back home for about 2-3 days. I did all I could to rectify this problem but all to no avail. I became very worried and needed help. As I was browsing through the Internet one day, I came across a website that suggested that Dr Great can help solve marital problems, restore broken relationships and so on. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he did a spell for me. Two days later, my husband came to me and apologized for the wrongs he did and promise never to do it again. Ever since then, everything has returned back to normal. I and my family are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr Great . If you need a spell caster that can cast a spell that truly works, I suggest you contact him. He will not disappoint you. This is his E-mail: 

    infinitylovespell@gmail.com or infinitylovespell@yahoo.com

    WhatsApp +2348118829899

    Blog http://infinitylovespell1.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  6. Strong And Powerful Love Spell To Win Your Ex Back.. I have decided that i am going to spend the whole day on the internet just to make sure that a lot of people are able to read this my testimony about Dr.happy who is a powerful spell caster from Africa, After been abandon by my lover i was so lonely that very day that i decided to go through the net for some relationships tips, I never knew that this was the road map that will secure the return of my lover. After reading a lot of tips on how to restore my relationship in a more better way i discovered that Dr.happy has a lot of recommendation than other spell casters, So with this i had my mind made up that Dr.happy was the right person for the job, And i contacted Dr.happy through his details which i saw on the internet and i was so happy that i chose to work with Dr.happy because his work was 100% perfect and the spell brought my lover back to me with fast relief you can also contact him for help now email.. happylovespell2@gmail.com
    Website...happylovespell2.webnode.com/
    Whatsapp/cal +2348133873774

    ReplyDelete
  7. Strong And Powerful Love Spell To Win Your Ex Back.. I have decided that i am going to spend the whole day on the internet just to make sure that a lot of people are able to read this my testimony about Dr.happy who is a powerful spell caster from Africa, After been abandon by my lover i was so lonely that very day that i decided to go through the net for some relationships tips, I never knew that this was the road map that will secure the return of my lover. After reading a lot of tips on how to restore my relationship in a more better way i discovered that Dr.happy has a lot of recommendation than other spell casters, So with this i had my mind made up that Dr.happy was the right person for the job, And i contacted Dr.happy through his details which i saw on the internet and i was so happy that i chose to work with Dr.happy because his work was 100% perfect and the spell brought my lover back to me with fast relief you can also contact him for help now email.. happylovespell2@gmail.com
    Website...happylovespell2.webnode.com/
    Whatsapp/cal +234813387377

    ReplyDelete
  8. Strong And Powerful Love Spell To Win Your Ex Back.. I have decided that i am going to spend the whole day on the internet just to make sure that a lot of people are able to read this my testimony about Dr.happy who is a powerful spell caster from Africa, After been abandon by my lover i was so lonely that very day that i decided to go through the net for some relationships tips, I never knew that this was the road map that will secure the return of my lover. After reading a lot of tips on how to restore my relationship in a more better way i discovered that Dr.happy has a lot of recommendation than other spell casters, So with this i had my mind made up that Dr.happy was the right person for the job, And i contacted Dr.happy through his details which i saw on the internet and i was so happy that i chose to work with Dr.happy because his work was 100% perfect and the spell brought my lover back to me with fast relief you can also contact him for help now email.. happylovespell2@gmail.com
    Website...happylovespell2.webnode.com/
    Whatsapp/cal +2348133873774

    ReplyDelete
  9. I am here to give my testimony about chief dr lucky who helped me in my life, i want to inform the public how i was cured from herpes simplex virus by chief dr lucky, i visited different hospital but they gave me list of drugs like Famvir, Zovirax, and Valtrex which is very expensive to treat the symptoms and never cured me. I was browsing through the Internet searching for remedy on herpes and i saw comment of people talking about how chief dr lucky cured them. when i contacted him he gave me hope and send a Herbal medicine to me that i took and it seriously worked for me, am a free person now without problem, my herpes result came out negative. I pray for you chief dr lucky am cured you can also get your self cured my friends if you really need my doctor help, you can reach him now.
    Email: chiefdrlucky@gmail.com  Call or What's App +2348132777335  
    Website :  http://chiefdrluckysolutionhome.website2.me/ 

    ReplyDelete
  10. Strong And Powerful Love Spell To Win Your Ex Back.. I have decided that i am going to spend the whole day on the internet just to make sure that a lot of people are able to read this my testimony about Dr.happy who is a powerful spell caster from Africa, After been abandon by my lover i was so lonely that very day that i decided to go through the net for some relationships tips, I never knew that this was the road map that will secure the return of my lover. After reading a lot of tips on how to restore my relationship in a more better way i discovered that Dr.happy has a lot of recommendation than other spell casters, So with this i had my mind made up that Dr.happy was the right person for the job, And i contacted Dr.happy through his details which i saw on the internet and i was so happy that i chose to work with Dr.happy because his work was 100% perfect and the spell brought my lover back to me with fast relief you can also contact him for help now email.. happylovespell2@gmail.com
    Website...happylovespell2.webnode.com/
    Whatsapp/cal +2348133873774

    ReplyDelete
  11. Strong And Powerful Love Spell To Win Your Ex Back.. I have decided that i am going to spend the whole day on the internet just to make sure that a lot of people are able to read this my testimony about Dr.happy who is a powerful spell caster from Africa, After been abandon by my lover i was so lonely that very day that i decided to go through the net for some relationships tips, I never knew that this was the road map that will secure the return of my lover. After reading a lot of tips on how to restore my relationship in a more better way i discovered that Dr.happy has a lot of recommendation than other spell casters, So with this i had my mind made up that Dr.happy was the right person for the job, And i contacted Dr.happy through his details which i saw on the internet and i was so happy that i chose to work with Dr.happy because his work was 100% perfect and the spell brought my lover back to me with fast relief you can also contact him for help now email.. happylovespell2@gmail.com
    Website...happylovespell2.webnode.com/
    Whatsapp/cal +2348133873774

    ReplyDelete
  12. Strong And Powerful Love Spell To Win Your Ex Back.. I have decided that i am going to spend the whole day on the internet just to make sure that a lot of people are able to read this my testimony about Dr.happy who is a powerful spell caster from Africa, After been abandon by my lover i was so lonely that very day that i decided to go through the net for some relationships tips, I never knew that this was the road map that will secure the return of my lover. After reading a lot of tips on how to restore my relationship in a more better way i discovered that Dr.happy has a lot of recommendation than other spell casters, So with this i had my mind made up that Dr.happy was the right person for the job, And i contacted Dr.happy through his details which i saw on the internet and i was so happy that i chose to work with Dr.happy because his work was 100% perfect and the spell brought my lover back to me with fast relief you can also contact him for help now email.. happylovespell2@gmail.com
    Website...happylovespell2.webnode.com/
    Whatsapp/cal +2348133873774

    ReplyDelete
  13. I want to thank Dr Emu a very powerful spell caster who help me to bring my husband back to me, few month ago i have a serious problem with my husband, to the extend that he left the house, and he started dating another woman and he stayed with the woman, i tried all i can to bring him back, but all my effort was useless until the day my friend came to my house and i told her every thing that had happened between me and my husband, then she told me of a powerful spell caster who help her when she was in the same problem I then contact Dr Emu and told him every thing and he told me not to worry my self again that my husband will come back to me after he has cast a spell on him, i thought it was a joke, after he had finish casting the spell, he told me that he had just finish casting the spell, to my greatest surprise within 48 hours, my husband really came back begging me to forgive him, if you need his help you can contact him with via email: Emutemple@gmail.com or add him up on his whatsapp +2347012841542 is willing to help any body that need his help.
    Website: http://emutemple.website2.me/

    ReplyDelete
  14. A GREAT SPELL CASTER (DR. EMU) THAT HELP ME BRING BACK MY EX GIRLFRIEND.
    Am so happy to testify about a great spell caster that helped me when all hope was lost for me to unite with my ex-girlfriend that I love so much. I had a girlfriend that love me so much but something terrible happen to our relationship one afternoon when her friend that was always trying to get to me was trying to force me to make love to her just because she was been jealous of her friend that i was dating and on the scene my girlfriend just walk in and she thought we had something special doing together, i tried to explain things to her that her friend always do this whenever she is not with me and i always refuse her but i never told her because i did not want the both of them to be enemies to each other but she never believed me. She broke up with me and I tried times without numbers to make her believe me but she never believed me until one day i heard about the DR. EMU and I emailed him and he replied to me so kindly and helped me get back my lovely relationship that was already gone for two months.
    Email him at: Emutemple@gmail.com  
    Call or Whats-app him: +2347012841542

    ReplyDelete