Why should Putin invade, when Ukraine can be destroyed from within — with help from its 'friends'?

When Biden zooms with Putin on Tuesday, he will see that Putin holds all the cards — and he only a pair of deuces, in the form of sending enough lethal military equipment to Ukraine to raise the cost to Putin of a military invasion.

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Where are Biden and Merkel's sanctions against Putin's gas weapon?

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In July, President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to reimpose sanctions if Vladimir Putin used gas as a “geopolitical weapon.” This agreement constituted a concession in return for Biden’s waiver of sanctions on Nord Stream 2, which allowed its completion. Merkel had already vouched for continued gas deliveries through Ukraine — a questionable pledge from a politician leaving office.

Despite these Biden-Merkel assurances, Putin’s Kremlin has engaged in undisguised blackmail to render Europe hostage to Russia’s gas monopoly, Gazprom. Putin’s blackmail aims to force the speedy certification of Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline by delivering less gas to Europe. Putin’s ultimate goal: Destroy the European Union’s competitive and transparent energy market.

Biden gives Putin the Nord Stream prize and gets nothing in return

 

Former Putin advisor Andrei Illarionov points out the enormous political leverage that Nord Stream 2 will bestow on Russia’s Gazprom: Come winter, there can be service interruptions that threaten customers that oppose Russian policies; others may be favored in terms of price and delivery if they bend to Putin’s rule. Russia can continue to squeeze Ukrainian territory, while its European gas customers keep quiet.

It is notable that the Biden decision comes at the right political moment for Nord Stream 2. With a national election scheduled for September, Merkel retiring and scandals threatening the traditional German ruling coalition, the resurgent German Green Party seems scheduled for significant gains. Perhaps there will even be a Green chancellor, or a Green foreign or economics minister. In such a case, the official policy of Germany would turn against Nord Stream 2.

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Navalny Poisoning Just A Bump In The Road For Nord Stream 2

The smart money would be on NS2’s eventual completion and Russia’s continued domination of the European gas market. Navalny has survived, NS2’s defenders and lobbyists are in full swing. The Trump administration may have run out of sanctions options. The European Union has bigger problems to deal with. With the feeble demand for gas associated with COVID-19, Germany and Europe can take their time as Russia pulls out all stops in its defense of NS2.

NS2 will be completed. The only question is the duration of the delay.

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Is Russia Preparing A Gas Nuclear Option?

Clearly, a nuclear option would risk long-term damage to Russia’s gas business with Europe. It would promote the construction of LNG terminals throughout Europe and drive European buyers into the clutches of American LNG. Europe could not afford to gamble with Russia’s unreliability as a supplier of such a key resource. But the nuclear option carries with it tempting short-run gains. It would remove Ukraine from the gas delivery business. Russia could destabilize the new administration of a young and popular president. Russia could again play king of the hill and split Eastern Europe from Western Europe, not only with cyber-attacks but with the more potent weapon of energy.

Let’s wait for Putin’s move.

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Merkel Salvages Nord Stream, But Is Putin Losing Russia's Gas Monopoly?

The European Union took a first step with its February 8 vote towards turning Russia’s gas monopoly, Gazprom, from an instrument of Russian power politics into a regulated utility, deprived of its monopoly power. In an odd twist, Germany, the self-proclaimed guardian of European unity, found itself politically isolated from the rest of Europe, which sided with U.S. President Donald Trump. A bitter pill for Germany to swallow.



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Germany: Welcome to the world of Trump

Entry into the Bundestag gives the AfD allotted time during question periods and automatic access for its views on the nightly ARD and ZDF news broadcasts. In one fell swoop, the AfD will gain the respectability of an established party, which is infuriating Berlin’s political elite.

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The Real Colluder With Russia Isn't Trump -- It's Germany

Germany postures itself as the conscience of Europe. Besieged by floods of refugees, Germany takes them in and scolds those who do not. Germany claims to guard European unity against the insidious forces of the nation-state. Germany ridicules the United States for electing a right-wing novice, a real estate developer, no less. It is Germany that stands in the way of Trump’s purported plans to weaken NATO and break apart the European Union. But Germany, the self-declared paragon of European values, finds itself fighting an isolated battle to give Putin’s rogue state its political objectives for the benefit of Germany, Inc.

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Europe's Harsh Deal Puts Greece Into Receivership And Avoids Contagion

The EU has wisely made the Greece deal so unpalatable that other countries with tottering public finances in similar need of reform are not tempted by contagion to follow in Greece’s footsteps. After seeing Greece’s terms, it is doubtful that Cyprus, Portugal or Spain will wish to do what Greece did.

By my count, Greece’s outstanding debt will soon rise to more than $350 billion. The EU meanwhile resists making available, by comparison, tiny funds for embattled Ukraine to survive economically despite its fighting a hot war on Europe’s behalf.

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More Putin Funnies: Watch Him Steal A Chair at Minsk 2

A hilarious You Tube from the Minsk 2 negotiations of world leaders over the Ukraine crisis shows Putin stealing a chair from host Alexander Lukashenko.

https://youtu.be/NfbMA5cZCtM

The You Tube shows Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Petro Poroshenko, and Vladimir Putin entering the negotiating hall with Lukashenko solicitously directing his guests to their seats. All of a sudden, Putin rushes towards Lukashenko and grabs the chair he is holding (either for himself or Merkel) and forcefully pushes it forwards out of Lukashenko’s grasp as Lukashenko speaks to Merkel. Putin tries to sit down but is caught in a quandary. Merkel is standing and even he knows not to sit while a lady is standing. He pops up and down a couple of times on his chair, glaring at Merkel as if to say: “Take a seat Frau Merkel so I can sit down.”

Apparently Putin is a stickler about the height of the chair in which he sits in meetings with other world leaders. Putin’s chair should be high enough that he does not look short relative to others. Simultaneously, the chair should not be so high that the Russian president's legs dangle in the air like a diminutive school boy. Preparation of the chair in advance for Putin is the most important tasks for his entourage before each of his public appearances, and here was Lukashenko unknowingly offering Putin's chair to someone else.

Maybe the negotiations would have stopped at that point if Merkel got Putin’s chair.

Putin Blames Enemies of the State For Nemtsov's Murder; Obama Demands Kremlin Investigate Itself

Vladimir Putin describes the Russian state as a power vertical, in which power is exercised at the very top. All authority descends from Putin himself and those below carry out his orders. According to this self description, nothing of importance can happen without the approval of the person atop the vertical. Under this logic, the contract killing of a major opposition figure falls under the direct responsibility of Putin. Calls by Merkel and Obama for justice are therefore really demands that the Kremlin investigate and bring itself to justice. Another case of Alice in Wonderland.

Boris Nemtsov, a leading opposition figure, age 55, was shot dead Friday night as he walked across a bridge connecting the Kremlin with the embankment district of central Moscow. The youthful and handsome Nemtsov was accompanied by his 23-year-old girlfriend, a Ukrainian model. According to initial BBC reports, he was shot four times by several men emerging from a white car and then speeding away. Nemtsov’s death was confirmed at the site by an aide, who reported that Nemtsov’s corpse lay in front of him on the street, surrounded by police. Contacts in Moscow reported that the murder scene was mobbed by mourners bringing flowers. Nemtsov’s female companion was taken away to be interrogated at police headquarters. (See video) Let’s see how long she’ll remain in custody.

Nemtsov served as Deputy Prime Minister under Boris Yeltsin. He was also mayor of Nizhny Novgorod before joining the liberal opposition to Putin. During his tenure under Yeltsin, Nemtsov was considered a possible successor, but handicapped by the fact that he was Jewish.

Nemtsov had expressed fears of being murdered shortly before his death. His last tweet to the people of Moscow read:

"If you support stopping Russia's war with Ukraine, if you support stopping Putin's aggression, come to the Spring March in Maryino on 1 March."

Nemtsov’s murder has the typical features of a Russian contract killing, similar to the still unsolved murder of investigative journalist Anna Politovskaya. The killing of a prominent opposition figure in central Moscow cannot be passed off as a random act of violence. Even the Kremlin identified the murder as a contract killing.

A possible motive, other than being a thorn in the Kremlin’s side: Opposition figure (and Putin’s God daughter), Ksenia Sobchak, said that Nemtsov was preparing a report on Russian troops in Ukraine at the time of his death – a subject that is strict taboo under Putin.

The Putin propaganda machine immediately began its spin. A Kremlin spokesman stated shortly after the murder that Putin regards “this cruel murder (as having) every sign of being a contract killing, which has a solely provocative nature.”  In a condolence telegram to Nemtsov's 86-year-old mother, Putin vowed to do “everything to ensure that the perpetrators of this vile and cynical crime and those who stand behind them are properly punished." Putin’s notorious star-chamber Investigative Committee spoke of Nemtsov as a "sacrificial victim” of those who oppose the state and echoed Putin’s murder as a “provocation" against the state. Kremlin-friendly media darkly identified his companion as a Ukrainian model 30 years his junior, as if suggesting Kiev had something to do with the murder. The Investigative Committee, noted for its indictments of dissidents on trumped-up charges, also revealed it was looking for a Ukrainian or even Islamic extremist connection.

The Kremlin’s obvious strategy: Kick up the dust of confusion. Surely, they say, the “provocation” was instigated by Putin’s enemies (Take your pick: Ukraine, NATO, the CIA, "hohol" Nazis, ISIS, etc.). Putin, at least had the sense not to dismiss Nemtsov, like he did Politovskaya, as an insignificant person. Instead Putin damned Nemtsov with faint praise as someone “who occupied significant posts in a difficult time of transition.”

The unfortunate predictable reactions of Western leaders only contribute to the Putin narrative of sinister forces out to get the Kremlin. Angela Merkel called on President Putin “to ensure that the murder is cleared up and the perpetrators brought to justice.” Barack Obama echoed Merkel in “calling upon the Russian government to conduct a prompt, impartial, and transparent investigation into the circumstances of his murder and ensure that those responsible for this vicious killing are brought to justice.” Do not Merkel and Obama realize they are conceding Putin’s defense. By declaring Putin’s Kremlin responsible for finding the murderers, they are ruling out the possibility that the Kremlin itself ordered the hit.

Western leaders are reluctant to recognize what Putin and his regime are capable of. Scholars John Dunlop and Karen Dawisha have chronicled the strong evidence that Putin was behind the 1999 apartment bombings that killed almost 400 Russians that brought him to power. Ordering the killing of one irritating opposition figure pales in comparison to this and other acts of violence.

In my own view, there are two possible explanations of Nemtsov’s murder: One is that the murder was ordered by the Kremlin itself to signal a new phase of clamp down on opposition figures. To date, figures like Nemtsov, Gary Kasparov, and Mikhail Kasyanov have been roughed up and jailed but none murdered.

My second explanation would be a rogue element within the Kremlin, perhaps an overzealous oligarch, but an act of violence of this import would be an unlikely move for subordinates operating within Putin’s fabled vertical of power. I do not know how such things are arranged, but they are done most likely through a wink and a nod with no paper trail.

Note that a murder, basically on Kremlin grounds on a street traveled by Putin’s motorcade rigged with security cameras and security police, requires a degree of official cooperation or looking the other way. The professional murderers chose the Bolshoi Moskvrechky Bridge leading from the Kremlin, a landmark that allows better escape from the crime scene. The assassins in the white car, however, would have had to risk getting caught in Moscow’s notorious 24 hour traffic jams in their escape attempt. Without such safeguards, Russia’s notorious contract killers would not have done the deed. In any other metropolis, the murderers would have been apprehended within minutes or would have been identified through leaks, eye witnesses and security cameras within a short period of time.

There will be no justice for Nemtsov. An expert on Russian contract killings explains that they are rarely solved “because of the interwoven nature of criminality and Russian officialdom.” In the best case, some lower-level gangsters will confess and will quickly disappear within the Russian penal system. They and their families will likely be well paid.

If my suspicions are correct (and we will likely never know the truth), the murder of a major opposition figure on the eve of a major rally shows the supreme level of confidence Vladimir Putin has in his hold on power. He has annexed Crimea, has de facto taken much of eastern Ukraine, and has stared down the intimidated West. What's one murdered opposition figure, more or less?

We will see how the people of Moscow react to this vicious murder. Will they conclude that Putin is behind it? After all, his message to the Russian people is that he is responsible for all that is good. If so, would he also not answer for this cowardly act of murder by contract?

Europe And The United States Finally Declare that Russian Soldiers Are Fighting In Ukraine

The European and American separate declarations that Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine is a rejection in clear language of the Kremlin’s phony narrative of a civil war fought by separatists and Russian “volunteers” deprives them of the “excuse not to believe.” It also means that Europe and the U.S. have labeled the leader of another country, one Vladimir Putin, a liar. The first step in solving any problem is to clearly define what it is. Europe and the U.S. have reluctantly taken this step. The next is to act.

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Berlin and Washington: The Political Battles That Could Decide Ukraine’s Fate

Ukraine’s fate may depend upon the battle within Germany’s ruling coalition over its policy towards Putin’s Russia. In the United States, the new Republican Senate will battle the Obama administration over weapons for Ukraine. Powerful factions in each country believe that concessions to Putin will bring a diplomatic solution. They ignore the adage: Peace through strength. Putin will agree to a real diplomatic solution only if Ukraine is able to defend itself. In the meantime, Ukraine is justified in concluding that it has been abandoned by those allies whose battle it is fighting without their assistance.

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Sham Election Proves Putin Does Not Want A Peaceful Solution In Ukraine

Sunday’s sham elections in Donetsk and Luhansk prove Putin does not want a peaceful solution for the Ukraine conflict. Rather, his goal is the defeat and humiliation of NATO and the U.S. Putin is prepared to risk new sanctions and world opprobrium, and a clear understanding of his intentions may wake up NATO and the U.S. Minsk peace process is dead, and Europe and the United States understand they must either fight back or capitulate.

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Russian Escalation Imminent As Merkel Plays The Peace Card For Putin

Ukraine understands that Putin used the last cease fire to re-equip and fortify pro-Russian separatists. With Ukraine’s Anti-Terrorist Operation tightening the noose in Donetsk and Luhansk, by-stander Europe has no business pushing for a deal with“peace maker” Putin that he will never honor. For Putin, a cease fire is just a tactical trick to gain advantage.

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Why Hold Elections That Everyone Knows Are Sham: Ask Putin

Vladimir Putin must be following the sham referendum in east Ukraine with satisfaction and delight. He has outfoxed Barack Obama, John Kerry, Angela Merkel, and the European Union once again. Not only has he escaped sanctions with his “wink and a nod” instructions to the separatist rebels to postpone (not give up) the May 11 election. Putin’s “peace initiative” of May 7 gave his stock market and the rouble a little boost and his plea to the rebels received sympathetic play with the major news services (See, for example Reuters account). On the day of the election, CNN’sreporting went so far as to characterize the rebel’s decision to go ahead with the referendum as “defiance” of Putin.

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Russian Regular Forces To Invade "NewRussia" Between May 4 And 9? (Guest Columnist)

Guest columnist, prominent member of Ukrainian civil society, explains why Putin with invade with regular troops end of first week of May and the long term consequences.

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Germany Co-opts Putin's Anti-Ukraine Propaganda To Support International Observers and Joining the EU (At Last, A Sign Of Life)

In his press conference today, Germany’s Foreign Minister, Franz Walter Steinmayer,   co-opted this Putin narrative to justify the pending European Association Agreement with Ukraine to be signed this Friday. Steinmayer pointed out that, by the logic of Putin’s own propaganda, Russia’s and the world’s interests are served by Ukraine taking the first step to membership in the EU.

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The Greek Vote, Blame Germany, and the Forgotten Reforms

Greek, French and Egyptian voters went to the polls today. In what was supposed to be a turning point for Egyptian democracy, voters turned out in small numbers to cast their ballots for the Muslim or establishment candidate. They well understood the military had assumed control and the election was meaningless. In Europe, Greek voters remained evenly divided between the center-right and the Left, which promised to jettison the austerity of the Euro bailout agreement. Although preliminary results suggest that a pro-Euro coalition may achieve a fragile majority, it is sure that Greece will continue to muddle along from crisis to crisis. Europe needed clarity but got more confusion. The Greeks did not vote to leave the Euro, and no one wants to be responsible for pushing them out. Greek voters reckon that Europe will bail them out unconditionally rather than risk Greece’s departure from the Euro. Quite a gamble, but it may be a winning bet.

In France, electors gave their new socialist president Hollande a solid parliamentary majority to support his pro-stimulus and pro-welfare state policies. With two elections out of the way, attention turns tomorrow to Mexico where the G-20 leaders can pontificate and agree on general principles while deciding nothing.
Sunday’s votes took place against the drumbeat of blaming Germany for all that ails the Euro zone. If only the miserly, self-centered Germans would lend a helping hand to their deserving neighbors, all these troubles would go away. The blame-Germany narrative gives the weak European countries an excuse for not taking tough action, and the facts show that Germany’s stingy reputation is undeserved.

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Dr. Gregory's latest book can be found at Amazon.com.

Add Disability to Obama's Anti-Jobs Policies

As the election draws closer, the two most closely watched economic indicators are the unemployment rate and the number of jobs created.  On June 1, the Bureau of Labor Statistics issued bad economic news. The number of jobs created was only 69,000 and the unemployment rate increased from 8.1 to 8.2 percent. In a presidential campaign, the difference between an 8.2 and a 7.5 percent unemployment rate or a month of 250,000 jobs versus 69,000 can be the difference between re-election and defeat.

The die is already cast. Obama bet all his money on Keynesian stimulus propped up by super-expansionary monetary policy, the Detroit bailout, and extensions of unemployment insurance. He has nothing left other than infrastructure projects, subsidies for state teachers and first responders, and a feeble jobs credit for small business. The one move that could turn things around quickly — extension of the Bush tax cuts – would deprive Obama of his prime campaign message that “the rich must pay their fair share.”

In a piece dated August 28, 2011 Why Obama Cannot Support a Real Jobs Program, I laid out an anti-Keynesian jobs program to create jobs and lower the unemployment rate. The third point in my program read “to create economic conditions that encourage businesses to hire and the unemployed to seek and accept jobs.” To do this, I advised not to extend unemployment benefits and to reduce the minimum wage, particularly for youths. The President did not follow my advice and look where he is now.
I wish to throw the social security disability into the mix of anti-job programs. The disability program is not the creation of the Obama administration, but Obama appointees have set and interpreted its policies for more than three years. Let’s examine their record:

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Dr. Gregory's latest book can be found at Amazon.com.