Fibbing With GM Job Creation Statistics, Bill Clinton Edition

From Bill Clinton‘s Democratic National Convention speech, September 5, 2012

“Now there are 250,000 more people working in the auto industry than the day the companies were restructured. Governor Romney opposed the plan to save GM and Chrysler. So here’s another jobs score: Obama two hundred and fifty thousand, Romney, zero.” Wild applause.
Clinton attributes the 250,000 new jobs created to domestic and foreign auto manufacturers, parts suppliers, and dealers located in the United States to the Obama-directed bankruptcy of General Motors. Without the President’s bold and decisive action, these quarter million new jobs would not exist, and U.S. manufacturing would not have been “saved.”

Clinton gets his figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which shows that U.S. auto manufacturers (both domestic and foreign owned) employed 624,400 at the time of the bankruptcy (June 2009) and now employ 789,500 — an increase of 165,100 jobs. Auto dealers employed 1,009,700 in June 2009 and 1,081,200 today — a gain of 71,500 jobs.  The two gains add up to 236,600 jobs (Clinton’s 250,000).
Sorry, President Clinton. There is no way you can you attribute the 236,600 job gain to the General Motors bailout. According to the carmaker’s annual report, GM North America employed 70,000 in the United States in June of 2009 (the rest were in Canada and Mexico) and 74,500 today, for a net gain of 4,500 jobs. Of the auto manufacturing job increases, GM accounts for only two percent.

go to forbes.com

American Airlines: The Way Bankruptcy Is Supposed to Proceed

American Airlines is in Chapter 11 bankruptcy supervised by a bankruptcy judge in federal court following normal procedures. American’s goal is to emerge from bankruptcy as a profitable concern.  All of American’s stakeholders – unions, creditors, management, etc. -- are represented and are fighting each other tooth and nail, as they should. American’s management wishes to abrogate union contracts that have made it the highest-cost carrier in the business. Management is trying to extract work rule concessions from reluctant unions. Unions are fighting to protect their contracts and pensions and minimize layoffs.  Another carrier, U.S. Air, is circling overhead, trying to lure stakeholders into a U.S. Air-American Airlines merger.

No matter what, jobs will be lost but probably not more than ten percent. Either a stand-alone American or an American merged with U.S. Air will emerge from bankruptcy, and all the interested parties will have defended their legitimate interests as best they can before an impartial judge. If all goes well, American can survive and make profits.

The American Airlines bankruptcy shows how the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies should have proceeded. Instead the of federal government grabbing the bankruptcy proceeding in a biased way towards the unions and to the disadvantage of creditors or potential third-party bidders, GM and Chrysler could have gone through a normal bankruptcy and emerged with lower costs, free from government diktat, and able to make  their own decisions.

The American bankruptcy case again exposes the emptiness of Obama’s claim that “he saved Detroit.”


Dr. Gregory's latest book can be found at Amazon.com.

Note to Krugman: Greece Proves Keynesian Economics Wrong

Times columnist Paul Krugman’s continuous railing against austerity reached a crescendo with Greece’s default. In his What Greece Means, Krugman vents his outrage:

“What Greek experience actually shows is that while running deficits in good times can get you in trouble… trying to eliminate deficits once you’re already in trouble is a recipe for depression…Greece is the worst case, with unemployment soaring to 20 percent even as public services, including health care, collapse.”

Bankrupt economies, like Greece, need stimulus, not austerity, Krugman declares indignantly. The “austerity-induced depressions” around the European periphery are proof that Keynes was right.  Germany’s Angela Merkel, her IMF-austerity allies, and world-wide lenders do not understand that we need a massive stimulus to get Greece out of this mess. They need to step up to the plate if they are good citizens of Europe (or the world).

Krugman does not fess up that Greece’s Keynesian policy of endless borrowing to fund wasteful government spending and feed massive welfare programs is exactly what got Greece in the trouble it is now in. The Greeks cannot pay their  bloated public payrolls, out-of-kilter wages, and generous pensions and early retirements unless fools lend them money that will not be repaid. Even the Greeks themselves are not falling for that trick. They are too busy transferring their assets abroad. Merkel and her stingy Germans make for good scapegoats, but it’s not only them. Lenders throughout the world have shut down the lending spigot.

Liberals are gearing up to use Krugman's Greek fable of “Keynes has won” to justify further trillions of U. S. debt and growing government to ever greater heights, as Times columnist Nicholas Kristof reveals in his In Athens, Austerity’s Ugliness:

 

 “Europe declared war on Keynes, and Keynes is winning…If you want to know how well (Republican budget cutting) works, come visit Europe — especially Greece. Yes, Greece needed a wake-up whack and economic reform, but Republican-style austerity knocked the patient unconscious.”

Greece’s Keynesian orgy leaves  it with two unpalatable options. One: Without further European bailouts, Greece exits the Euro zone, its drachma collapses, and its living standards fall to Bulgaria’s. Eventually, after prolonged pain its wages and prices fall enough to restore its competitiveness. Two: It meets the terms of its EU bailout agreements, it stays in the Euro zone, cuts government spending, and reduces wages and prices over an extended period of time until its competitiveness is restored.

One statistic explains why Greece must experience rising unemployment, let wages and prices fall, and fix its broken welfare system under both scenarios. German unit labor costs (the cost of producing one unit of output) have been flat over the past decade, while Greek unit labor costs soared, fueled by borrowed money from abroad. Germany (and the rest of Northern Europe)  kept its costs in check by wage restraint, rising productivity, and checking the welfare state. Greece became a broken economy no longer able to compete either within the European or world market. Keynesian economics brought them to this sad state of affairs.

Greece is not a test of Keynesian economics as liberals would like to claim.  Only economic illiterates could call for deficit spending when there are no lenders. In order for there to be a deficit, someone somewhere has to pay for it.

go to Forbes.com

The New GM: It Should Do Well With No Debt

The new GM reported a profit of $2.5 billion for the second quarter of 2011. This compared to a loss of $15 billion in the same quarter of 2010.

Indeed, the new GM appears to be doing a lot of things right. It has reduced its labor force from 263,000 to 208,000. It operates fewer plants. It made slightly more cars, and it has reduced its buyer incentives.

The Obama administration will use this success story as his major economic achievement. He saved GM with the government’s $50 billion bailout. He did not save the shareholders of the “Old GM.” They lost everything.

There is one fact missing in this optimistic story. The $50 billion bailout wiped out $40 billion of GM debt. It is a lot easier to make a profit if you have no debt payments.

In the second quarter of 2011, GM had no interest expenses. Ford, which borrowed money to stay in business, has around a half billion in interest expenses each quarter. The government bailout, in effect, gave GM a huge competitive advantage over its rivals. Without the bailout, GM would be paying more than $2 billion a year in interest costs.  Its second quarter profit would have been $1.7 billion instead of $2.5 billion.

GM now faces an increasingly bleak third and fourth quarter. If its profit drops to, say, $800 million, virtually all of that is due to the bailout of its debt.

Is GM the success story we are told it is?

Obama Didn’t Save Union Jobs, He Saved Union Pay

Contrary to popular belief, bankruptcy does not mean companies close their doors and send employees home. This is the false message President Barack Obama tried to sell on his victory tour of Detroit. If General Motors had gone through a normal bankruptcy without taxpayer bailouts, there would still be GM jobs–maybe even more than there are now. We do not know because that was the road not taken.

We do know, however, what happened to the airlines that went through bankruptcy. Their planes kept flying, and pilots, mechanics and flight attendants reported to work, even if there were fewer of them.
Over the past decade, no industry has had worse breaks than the airlines. They took a huge hit from 9/11. They have been buffeted by fuel prices. The TSA’s intrusive airport screening angered passengers. Furthermore, the airline industry is cyclical; it suffers disproportionately from economic downturns.

Compared to the airlines, GM has had a cake walk.
Continue reading Paul Gregory at Forbes.com…