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Friday, June 15, 2012

So Much for Egypt's Arab Spring

The Arab Spring has ended in Egypt as I expected. The Military has abolished the parliament and has introduced new rules close to martial law. It seems to make no sense to continue with the presidential election runoff.

What has happened was totally predictable. The Egyptian military (and associated establishment) control some 40 percent of the economy. They are rich and will not give up what they have without a battle to the death. A legitimate, independent government would have taken all this away.

No surprises here.

The U.S, State Department must decide what to do. We might be tempted to go back to the status quo alliance with an unsavory partner. Who knows?


  1. The genie is out of the bottle. Military cannot put it back in the bottle. The genie will break the bottle. Clearly, not every Spring yields fruits for the inexperienced gardeners (of democracy); especially, if they sow old seeds (of theocracy).

  2. The biggest chaotic points in the Middle East are : 1) Pakistan; and, 2) Egypt. In a few years, Saudi Arabia may take the first or the second place.