Showing posts with label East Ukraine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label East Ukraine. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Trump should be wary of Putin's 'truth'-telling

If Putin can claim with a straight face that Russia did not orchestrate the Crimean annexation and has not used regular Russian troops in Ukraine, he can solemnly assert to President Trump that Russia did not intervene in the U.S. election and “believe” what he says.
After all, what is the difference between a Russian hacker hacking the DNC from Nigeria, a “lost” Russian paratrooper in east Ukraine and a “little green man” minding his own business in Crimea? None, according to Putin, are the responsibility of Russia.
Let’s hope that President Trump understands what Putin is actually saying.

go to The Hill.com

Friday, February 10, 2017

It's Time For Trump To Call Ukraine's 'Pro-Russian Rebels' What They Are: Russian Invaders

The West has, to my regret, subscribed to an “uncontrollable but influenceable” interpretation of Russia’s role in the Ukraine conflict. Angela Merkel (along with President Obama)  has called repeatedly on Putin “to use his influence” on Ukrainian rebels to end the conflict, to which Putin replies in fake innocence that he wants a peaceful Ukraine on his borders.  The West embraces the notion of “uncontrollable but influenceable” as a convenient excuse for not taking action against Russian aggression, other than economic sanctions and words.



go to Forbes.com

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

MH17: A Tragic Mistake Or Deliberate State Murder?

We are left with the choice between a tragic error made by rebel/Russian forces in the heat of battle versus believing in one of the most sinister acts of deliberate state murder of all time.

go to forbes.com

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

My Interview on RT

I just completed my first interview (by skype) on Russia Today TV. They were very polite and professional. They wanted to know my views on the UN speeches of Putin and Obama, and whether a coalition could be formed to fight ISIS. I replied that Russia’s desire to keep Assad in power would be a stumbling block. I was then asked about the movement to eliminate the veto of certain security council member (directed against Russia for its veto of a criminal tribunal for MH17). The moderator then turned to sanctions to ask whether they were an effective mechanism. I replied that the Russian sanctions have been mild and were imposed because of the annexation of Crimea, MH17, and the introduction of regular Russian troops into southeast Ukraine starting in August. The moderator interrupted to say that there was no evidence of regular Russian forces in southeast Ukraine and declared that we had run out of time.


Maybe we had run out of time or my response on regular Russian forces went over their line. We’ll see if this comment is in the edited version. 

Saturday, July 19, 2014

Why Putin Can Never Tell The Truth on MH17

If Putin were to admit the truth, it would confirm that Russia has supplied fanatical and in some cases possibly insane rebel leaders with advanced military equipment contrary to his assertions that Russia has nothing to do with the Ukraine conflict, other than wanting peace. Such an admission expands the Ukrainian conflict to the world stage. It is the first case of rebels, supplied by a major power with surface-to-air missiles, bringing down a passenger plane. A nightmare shared by the whole world has come true. Which rebel group in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, or the Gaza strip will be next? In this context, Putin is just as dangerous as al Qaeda, ISIS, Hamas, and the rest of this crowd.

go to Forbes,com

Monday, June 23, 2014

Putin Plays Peacemaker, But His Act Is Getting Old

Do not get excited about prospects for peace. What I wrote two weeks ago still holds. Russia and Ukraine remain miles apart and no peace is in sight. If anything, Poroshenko’s 14 point plan and Putin’s between-the-lines response leave the two sides, if anything, further apart.

go to Forbes.com

Friday, May 23, 2014

Six Reasons Why Putin Seems To Have Lost In Eastern Ukraine



There is a growing consensus that Vladimir Putin has abandoned his campaign to take control of east Ukraine. The fog of war, such as the killing of nearly 20 Ukrainian soldiers yesterday, is obscuring the distinct turn in the tide. Putin’s goal has changed from dismantling Ukraine as a united state to destabilizing Sunday’s presidential election in the east. Ukraine has a chance for a third lease on life. It cannot afford to blow this chance by returning to its old ways of governing. Ukraine’s third lease on life will likely be its last if wasted.
go to forbes.com

Monday, May 19, 2014

An Unauthenticated Document Planning the Retreat of Russian Special Forces from East Ukraine

We have reason to believe that the self-appointed leaders of the self-proclaimed Peoples Republic of Donetsk (PRD) understood quite well the message of the May 11 referendum. Less than 12 hours after the polls closed, the PRD military commander, Colonel Strelkov alias Strelok (real name Girkin), purportedly issued alarmed instructions to a restive, unsupportive east Ukraine, beset by lawlessness and chaos, from which the Russian “volunteers” might have to flee.

The purported order came into the hands of MediaUkraine. A copy is attached. We do not know if it is authentic, but the words and message are consistent with past pronouncements by Strelkov.

The order purported from Strelkov (as translated by me despite its rather bad grammar and twisted syntax) reads as follows:

Military Order to the Self Defense Forces of the Donetsk Peoples Republic, Slavyansk 07:00 12.5.2014

The events from 09.05 to 11.05.2014 and the results of the referendum conducted on the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts reflect only the partial achievement of established goals. The work is made more complex by a series of issues, based on the fact of cases of uncontrolled marauding in Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, the unauthorized use of firearms, military supplies, and materials, the low level of support for actions for the self defense of the local population.

Based on the above, I ORDER:        

1. The distribution of weapons, military equipment, financial resources, narcotics, and alcohol [my itals] will be handled exclusively by the forces of self defense (without the participation even of loyal local activists).

2. Actions aimed at the destabilization of the situation must be clearly coordinated with the staff.  Eliminate acts of uncontrolled looting and marauding.

3. Actions of intimidation (torture, demonstrative punishment of Ukrainian activists including those armed) can be carried out only with the agreement of representatives of Russian mass media [my itals]

4. Increase the intensity of  actions to discredit Ukrainian authority and attribute responsibility for the terrorization of the population of  Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts by ultranationalist pro-Ukrainian organizations “Right Sector" and ”Svoboda” to the Ukrainian government.

5. Prepare and present before 09:00 15.05.14 to the staff plans for the departure of forces for the Russian Ukrainian border [my itals]. The departure will be prepared and guaranteed by the special services of the Russian Federation.

Signed by the Coordinator of forces of self defense of the Donetsk Peoples Republic.
I.I. Strelkov (Strelok)

The Strelkov document was  published on the internet by Press Ukraini. It is going viral on the Russian-language internet.  

If authentic, Strelkov’s May 12 order points to a collapse of law and order in the Slavyansk region, low levels of public support for the self-proclaimed separatist leadership, an unwillingness to join self-defense forces, and an admission that locals are being supplied alcohol and narcotics to encourage anti-Ukraine activism. Indeed, Ukrainian forces have reported drunken oppositionists, and mobs of demonstrators appear either drunk or high.

Point 3 of Strelkov’s order is either garbled or an instance of unexpected candor. It orders that torture or demonstrative (pokazatel’ny) punishment of pro-Ukrainians, armed or otherwise, must be cleared with the Russian (Rossiisky) mass media (SMI). Point 3, therefore suggests coordination between the pro-Russian leadership and Russia’s media to insure either proper staging of news, to prevent unwanted images of Russian abuses from being captured by the wrong cameras, and to lay responsibility for acts of terror at the feet of pro-Ukrainian extremists.

The Strelkov document is consistent with the growing consensus that Putin is abandoning his campaign to take over significant parts of east Ukraine.

The game appears to be over. I would not be surprised if Putin uses Strelkov and his unsavory gang as scapegoats, claiming they were out of his control all the time.


Sunday, May 4, 2014

Intercepted Phone Calls Show Putin Called The Shots On European Hostages In Ukraine

The intercepted phone calls between Putin's personal emissary and the military commander of the Slovyansk command and control center to carry out the release of the kidnapped international observers clearly shows that the Kremlin is calling the shots in east Ukraine and that the local "self defense forces" are following these orders to the letter.

go to Forbes.com

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Putin's Promises To Eastern Ukraine Could Bankrupt Russia

With a Russian budget of 38 percent of GDP, or slightly less than one trillion dollars (Moscow’s Gaidar Institute), the annexation of just the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine would eat up between 6 and 8 percent of the Russian budget each year – as compared with 12 percent for the military. This is $60 to $80 billion less for investment, military expenditures, modernization, and other state activities.
If Putin were to annex the whole of east Ukraine (about 15 million population), the cost would double to $120 to $160 billion – to an untenable share of the budget.

go to forbes.com

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Ukrainian Military Analyst Warns Russian Invasion Imminent (But First Need Dead Protesters)

The Russian invasion plan requires the advance Russian agents to stage armed confrontations that result in casualties in demonstrations and occupied public buildings. So far Ukrainian forces have exercised remarkable restraint to prevent this from happening, but the Russian plan calls for the shooting of pro-Russian demonstrators by Russian special forces. They will pick out local Russian protesters, not paid Russian operatives. 

go to forbes.com

Monday, April 7, 2014

Putin’s Attack On Ukraine Began Today: What This Means For Europe And The US

The Russian assault’s first covert phase aims for the utter and complete destabilization of key cities that lie near the eastern border. As I write, mobs, directed by Russian special ops forces, FSB operatives, and local thugs are directing rent-a-crowds in Lugansk, Donetsk, and Kharkiv to storm public buildings, rough-up unarmed security forces, and demand referendums to join Mother Russia. As a slight variation, Donetsk demonstrators demand a “free republic.” 

go to forbes.com