Why Russia Cannot Become Our Friend: Memo to President Trump

Regrettably, the prospects for a successful negotiation with Putin over the “unsatisfactory condition of Russian-American relations” are near zero for the following reasons: The Putin regime requires confrontation with the US for its very survival, while Trump must deliver “beautiful deals” that “make American great again.” If Trump were to sign a deal which does not yield real enforceable concessions by Putin on Crimea, east Ukraine, or the Middle East, Trump’s deal-making image would be shattered along with his presidency.


go to Forbes.com

Ten Reasons Why Putin Wins Big In Syria While The U.S. Gets Nothing

Putin’s payoff from his Syrian “peace keeping” could be enormous; namely, a breakup of NATO and the European Union and a sell out by the West of Ukraine on the grounds that it is not fulfilling the conditions of the Minsk 2 agreement (as if Russia is). If this happens, Putin has achieved his main goal–the end of Ukraine as a unitary state to demonstrate the risks of attempting to break free from Russia’s “sphere of influence.” The ultimate disgrace is that the West welcomed Putin as a partner in Syria on the basis of his promise to fight ISIS. Instead, Putin bombed the opponents of Assad, inflicting massive civilian casualties on them and contributing to the migration flow into Europe. ISIS did not seem to appear on his target list. For those who know Putin, this was no surprise.

go to Forbes.com

Why Putin Makes a Bad Ally Against ISIS

At first blush, the idea that Russia is a natural ally against Islamist terrorists seems to make sense. The country has suffered horrific terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists, including the bombing in November of a plane above the Sinai Peninsula, which killed 224 passengers and crew, nearly all of them Russian. Around 20 million Muslims, most of them Sunni, live within the Russian Federation, and the country’s security officials report that some 7,000 fighters from the former Soviet republics and Russia have joined the Islamic State.

On deeper examination, however, it becomes clear that an anti-terror alliance with Russia is wishful thinking. Putin has not gone into Syria to defeat the Islamic State. He has intervened to save the regime of Russia’s client, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Putin may sometimes give the appearance that he is ready to abandon Assad, but ultimately he will defend him. Leaving Assad to his fate would be a sign of weakness – and thus anathema to Putin.

Read more at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-putin-makes-a-bad-ally-by-paul-r--gregory-2015-12#EWTz8A2H8ML8iEKd.99


go to Project Syndicate

Turkey's Downing of the Russian Fighter: Expect Nuclear Saber Rattling and Threats to NATO's Existence

The world is in for a tense time of possible nuclear brinksmanship. If the United States and the other NATO countries blink, NATO is no more, and Putin has achieved his major goal. We must worry whether the Western world is led by leaders up to the task. There should be some sleepless nights in Berlin, London, Paris and Washington D.C. Putin is rightly described as a bully—and the standard procedure against bullies is to fight back. Turkey’s Erdogan has done just that. Will Turkey’s military allies back him up or cave once more? This test, if it comes, will have profound consequences.

go to Forbes.com

Putin's Syria Narrative Must Win Russian Public Opinion--But It'll Be A Hard Sell

According to Putin’s Syria narrative, Russia will triumphantly rejoin the Western world as its savior after its good deed in the Middle East is complete. Hard feelings over Crimea will be long forgotten; sanctions will disappear. The U.S. will become a second-rate power, unmasked as all talk and no action. Other countries will understand where the power lies and whom to have as a friend. The question is whether Putin will be able to convince the Russian people to bear the burden of yet another foreign adventure. His propaganda succeeded for Ukraine, but is less likely to work for far away Syria.



go to Forbes.com

My Interview on RT

I just completed my first interview (by skype) on Russia Today TV. They were very polite and professional. They wanted to know my views on the UN speeches of Putin and Obama, and whether a coalition could be formed to fight ISIS. I replied that Russia’s desire to keep Assad in power would be a stumbling block. I was then asked about the movement to eliminate the veto of certain security council member (directed against Russia for its veto of a criminal tribunal for MH17). The moderator then turned to sanctions to ask whether they were an effective mechanism. I replied that the Russian sanctions have been mild and were imposed because of the annexation of Crimea, MH17, and the introduction of regular Russian troops into southeast Ukraine starting in August. The moderator interrupted to say that there was no evidence of regular Russian forces in southeast Ukraine and declared that we had run out of time.

Maybe we had run out of time or my response on regular Russian forces went over their line. We’ll see if this comment is in the edited version. 

Obama Takes On ISIS With Brave Words, Pinprick Strikes, And Phantom Allies

Obama’s war time strategies in Iraq and Syria and Ukraine have certain similarities. In both cases, it is others who are to do the heavy lifting. In Ukraine, the young Ukrainian forces must fight on their own with no real assistance from Europe and the United States, both of whom might have to sacrifice a tenth of one percent of their GDPs from their sanctions support. In Iraq and now Syria, at least there are a few Americans on the ground and there is American air power, but it is others who are to die – presumably in large numbers.

go to Forbes,com