The pipe as the price of aggression. The fate of Nord Stream 2 is in doubt (Radio Liberty Interview with Paul Gregory)

for Russian text

The future of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will be in question if Moscow does not make serious concessions. 

At best, its commissioning will take place in June next year and only if Russia fulfills the preconditions that will prevent the Kremlin from using this pipeline as an instrument of political and economic pressure. Such a forecast in the Washington edition of The Hill is made by Professor Emeritus of the University of Houston, researcher at the German Institute for Economic Research, economist Paul Gregory.

According to Paul Gregory, the first statements by members of the new coalition government of the Federal Republic of Germany, where the majority were Social Democrats, sounded partly sensational. Germany's new foreign minister, Annalena Berbock , a Green Party spokeswoman long known for her skepticism about Nord Stream 2, announced in a Sunday television interview that the new pipeline could not be operational as members of the government coalition believe it does not meet the requirements of European energy legislation. A few days ago, the new German chancellor Olaf Scholz in response to a question whether Nord Stream 2 could be used as an instrument of pressure on the Kremlin to prevent a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, he said that such a move by Moscow would have consequences, which, according to Paul Gregory, means that the Kremlin will have to pay with Nord Stream 2 in the event of an attack on Ukraine.

If the new German government demands that Russia comply with all the requirements of European energy legislation, then the operating conditions of the new gas pipeline may be unacceptable for Gazprom and the Kremlin, Paul Gregory explained to Radio Liberty:

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- The problem for Gazprom is that if it is forced to comply with these requirements, the competitiveness of Nord Stream 2 will plummet. Gazprom will not be able to act as a producer and supplier of gas. He will have to allocate a certain share of the capacity of his gas pipelines to transport competitors' products. All rates must be made public. From my point of view, these conditions are unacceptable for Gazprom. I assumed that Germany might allow, roughly speaking, a shell company to take over the transportation of gas in order to separate producer and supplier. The new German government, apparently, will not allow this. Among other things, the start-up of the gas pipeline must be approved by the European Commission, which initially opposed this project,

Meeting European conditions will not only reduce the potential profitability of Nord Stream 2, but, more importantly for the Kremlin, prevent it from using the pipeline as a political tool, says Paul Gregory:

- The use of Nord Stream 2 as an instrument of pressure in the event of meeting European requirements will be impossible, and in fact it was conceived in many respects in order to exclude Ukraine as a transit country for Russian natural gas. The capacity of Nord Stream 2 is close to the capacity of gas pipelines passing through the territory of Ukraine. Russia, of course, needs the money it can get by putting into operation a new gas pipeline, but I think the ability to use gas as an instrument of pressure is still more important for it.

According to Paul Gregory, the current US sanctions and the possibility of new sanctions also continue to pose a serious problem for Nord Stream 2:

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- The Senate is very decisive about the sanctions against the gas pipeline. And now there is a struggle between the Senate and the administration, which, as you know, has decided not to subject the pipeline operator to sanctions. But the existing sanctions are very tangible for Gazprom, because any European company related to Nord Stream 2 is in constant danger, it could become the target of US sanctions. This threat is taken seriously by any business.

It is possible that in these new conditions, the future of Nord Stream 2 will be in question, says Paul Gregory:

- In my opinion, we can say that the fate of the gas pipeline is in question. So far, there is no answer to the question of whether it will be possible to start its operation in June 2022 or the process of obtaining final approval for its launch will drag on for several years. If I had been asked this question two weeks ago, I would have answered in the affirmative: yes, it will be launched in June. But the picture was radically changed by the comments of representatives of the new government coalition in Germany, although it has been in power for only a few days, so it is too early to draw final conclusions, says Paul Gregory.

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  Yuri Zhigalkin

  ZhigalkinY@rferl.org

Intercepted Conversations of Russian Special Forces Commander With Self-Proclaimed Mayor of Slovyansk

A Radio Liberty dispatch (Radio Svobody) dated April 24 contains the transcript of an intercepted conversation between Colonel Igor Strelkov, the purported commander of Russian special forces in the east Ukrainian city of Slovyansk (Russian: Slavyansk) with the self-appointed Mayor, “Slava” Ponomarev (see the transcript of his chilling interview). The Radio Liberty imprimatur gives the tapped telephone conversation credibility because Radio Liberty must avoid over-the-top claims to preserve the credibility of its reporting. Radio Liberty writes that the Ukrainian secret service (SBU) has made the tape available to destroy any illusion as to who is in charge of  Slovyansk.

The Ukrainian Special Services (SBU) has, in the meantime, released the actual tapes of the conversations between Strelkov, Ponomarev, and another officer. In one intercepted call, Strelkov discusses the You Tube being shown on the internet of pro-Ukrainian council member, Volodymyr Rybak being surrounded by a pro-Russian crowd. He is assured that "thank goodness, none of our guys are on the film." In the next call, Strelkov ("code name "Bes") orders his subordinate to "neutralize" Rybak, giving detailed instructions on torture and disposition. 

The third conversation involves Strelkov ordering Ponomarev to deal with Rybakov's body, whose tortured body was discovered floating in the river.

This short conversation is as follows:

Strelkov: “Slava: you (“Ty,” familiar form) please decide the question of the corpse. This should be taken care of quickly and get it off our hands. The body is lying here and beginning to smell.”

Ponomarev: “The corpse. Yes. Yes. Right away. I am just finishing with the journalists. I’ll take care of it.”

Ponomarev (apologetic): "My stupid guys (literally “goats”) brought the body to you there – to the basement."

Ponomarev: “I am coming right now. I’ll organize the burial of this rooster.”

Strelkov: “Ok. Good.”

I publish my translation, again, to illustrate the kind of Russian forces and stooges that will run those parts of Ukraine taken over by Russia. What a nightmare! I would not like to be a liberal, Ukrainian, Gypsy, Tartar, or Jew caught up in Putin's embrace.

Appease, Surrender, Abandon, and Get Nothing: Obama's NaivePolitik

Obama’s superior foreign-policy acumen has been part and parcel of the Beltway narrative. “I killed Osama and I Got Us Out of Iraq” were supposed to offset the awful economy. Pundits were sure that youth-lived-in-Indonesia and college-traveler-to-Pakistan Obama could easily dispatch provincial “businessman” Romney in the  final debate – a fitting climax to the President’s inevitable reelection. As Obama whispered to Putin’s envoy: “Tell Vladimir to wait until the election. Then I will be flexible,” he could not even imagine a loss to such a weak opponent.

The Benghazi tragedy of 9/11 shook the foundations of this narrative. For weeks, the administration kept changing its story, as if in a panic. On the eve of the final debate, foreign policy has moved to the front burner to decide an election that was supposed to be about the economy. The rough-and-tumble of the last debate will swell an audience waiting for blood.

Obama entered the first two debates with weak cards, but he was supposed to contest the final debate from a position of strength. All that has changed. Romney can produce a devastating laundry list of Obama’s foreign policy defeats to an audience that is actually listening. And Obama will not have Candy Crowley, unless Bob Shieffer wants to join her in the tank.


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